Pantheon Macroeconomics founder says home prices could fall 15% in 2023, citing the price-to-income gap
Per Yahoo Finance
US economist Ian Sheptherdson shared his thoughts on how he sees a potential 15% drop in home prices in 2023. Sheptherdson is the founder and chief US economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The US economist also gave a statement in 2005 that predicted the housing crash of 2008. Shepherdson cited multiple factors, including the gap between the price of homes and buyers' income.
On top of the price-to-income gap, Shepherdson also mentioned how the housing supply and mortgage rates have risen. Combined, he said that these factors could "precipitate a period of continued deceleration."
The deduction was given instead of saying that this year could see a rebound in the housing market. In a note to clients, they were notified that market uncertainty should continue, which comes with a monthly decline.
Pantheon: “To be clear, any rebound in sales from here will be small; monthly payments for a new buyer of an existing home have fallen, but were still up 54% year-over-year in December.”
Shepherdson expects a potential drop of 15-20% to bring the price-to-income ratio back to pre-Covid numbers. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs only predicts a drop of just 6.1%.
Goldman Sachs belives that a percentage point drop resulted in a slight recovery for the housing affordability index.
Despite this, they described the market as being at an "unaffordable level." In 2022, median home prices increased by 10.2%, and aside from Shepherdson's prediction, KPMG thinks home prices could drop by 20% in 2023.
While prices increased significantly, December 2022 still saw a massive drop in sales by 34% year-over-year. However, sales are expected to increase due to the decline in mortgage rates, which saw a significant increase in 2022.
This comes as US commercial real estate investors have piled up withdrawal requests in January, reaching a massive $20 billion. This amount was second only to the Great Recession.
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Other News:
- Median home prices fell 10.2% in 2022, but KPMG economists say there could be a 20% drop in home prices in 2023
- US Commercial Real Estate Investors Withdrawal Requests Pile Up to $20 Billion, Second Largest Since Great Recession
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