U.S. Economy Hits 78 Straight Months Without a Recession

The U.S. economy just keeps expanding.

The economy has now gone 78 straight months without a recession, the sixth-longest expansion since 1854, per NBER data.

That's well above the long-term average of about 49 months, and the median of about 38 months.

The record still stands

The all-time record is 128 months, set during the 2009 to 2020 expansion. To pass it, this expansion would need to last until early 2031.

In other words, the economy would have to run recession-free for another 50 months, a tall order with oil above $100, the 10-year Treasury past 5%, and a trade war still straining global commerce.

Long but not the strongest

Length and strength are different things. The record 2009-2020 expansion was the longest on record but also one of the weakest in terms of GDP and employment growth, averaging around half the pace of the typical postwar expansion.

The current run faces the same scrutiny. Household spending is being squeezed by higher fuel costs from the Iran conflict, and businesses are leaning on imports to meet demand. Whether the expansion keeps its footing will come down to the consumer holding up under that pressure.

Do you want to see how to make more plays? Do you want to find gains yourself?

Unusual Whales helps you find market opportunities through our market tide, historical options flow, GEX, and much, much more.

Create a free account here to start conquering the market with Unusual Whales

Options market and stocks to watch

Late-cycle expansions historically reward cyclicals until they don't. As the expansion ages, watch call flow in broad market exposure like SPY and tech leaders in QQQ for signs of euphoria, and put flow in small caps like IWM for early stress, since small caps tend to crack first when confidence in growth peaks.

If recession risk rises, defensives get bid. Keep an eye on staples and healthcare flow, and watch whether defensive rotation starts showing up in options positioning as the expansion pushes deeper into record territory.

Want more market intelligence? Create your free Unusual Whales account for options flow, market tide, GEX, and the full toolkit.