US Home Prices Rise for 36 Straight Months, Hit Record High

US home prices just notched another record, extending a streak that is now three full years long. The median price of existing homes in June was $440,660, up 1.8% from $432,700 a year ago, according to new data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and home prices have risen for 36 straight months.

The 36-month streak

The U.S. median sales price increased 1.8% in June from a year earlier to $440,600, an all-time high on data going back to 1999, NAR said, and home prices have risen on an annual basis for 36 months in a row.

The paradox: sales are slowing while prices keep climbing. The U.S. housing market has been in a slump since 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from pandemic-era lows, and sales of previously occupied U.S. homes were essentially flat last year, stuck at a 30-year low.

Affordability is the pressure point

“Housing affordability remains low under slowing wage growth and stronger home price growth,” Ershang Liang, an economist with PNC Economics Research, said in a report.

First-time buyers accounted for 33% of home purchases last month, down from 35% in May and up from 30% in June last year, versus a historical share of 40% of home sales. That gap is where the demand destruction shows up.

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Rates and inventory keep the squeeze on

Many of the homes purchased last month likely went under contract in April and May, when the average rate on a 30-year mortgage ranged from 6.23% to 6.53% — the highest level going back to late August, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac.

June’s month-end inventory translates to a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, versus the 5- to 6-month supply traditionally considered a balanced market, with NAR’s Lawrence Yun saying inventory needs 30%-40% growth that is not materializing.

The policy overhang

The latest uptick in residential real estate costs comes after lawmakers last month passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which would implement a range of policies to lower home prices, including removing regulatory barriers to construction, restricting institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes and encouraging zoning reforms to accelerate homebuilding.

Although Congress approved the bill in a rare show of bipartisan support, it remains hung up in Washington, D.C. President Trump in late June canceled a planned signing ceremony for the measure, saying he would not sign the legislation until lawmakers pass an elections bill known as the SAVE America Act, and the fate of the housing bill remains unclear.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch the homebuilders for how the market is pricing the standoff between record prices and slowing sales: DHI, LEN, and PHM all sit at the intersection of pricing power and demand destruction from mortgage rates.

On the mortgage and brokerage side, watch RKT and Z for signs that transaction volume is thawing or freezing further. Home improvement names like HD tend to move when existing-home turnover shifts, since buyers drive a chunk of renovation spend.

For more housing and macro coverage, see other news.

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