US voters think they will be better off financially under Donald Trump

Nearly half of American voters believe they would be better off if Donald Trump wins the presidential election, according to a recent poll conducted at the start of a Republican convention, which is expected to focus on the aftermath of an assassination attempt on the candidate.

The nationwide poll was conducted last week, prior to an incident where a lone gunman fired shots at Trump during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. The survey highlights Trump's perceived advantage on economic issues among voters as the November election approaches.

According to the latest survey conducted for the Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, 45% of voters — including 40% of independents — said they would be "much" or "somewhat" better off under Trump, while only 35% felt they would be "much" or "somewhat" worse off.

The monthly FT-Ross School of Business poll monitors economic sentiment and voter opinions leading up to the presidential election.

Trump has consistently outperformed Democratic president Joe Biden in polls regarding economic management. Despite recent economic data showing strong growth, low unemployment, and falling inflation, Biden has struggled to convince an electorate still grappling with high prices that his economic policies are effective.

Trump has claimed that the economy was strong under his leadership before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. On the campaign trail, he has promised to reduce regulations, cut taxes, and significantly increase tariffs on imports if given another four years in office.

Biden’s difficulties appear closely linked to voter perceptions about inflation. Over the past three months, 77% of Americans said they believed inflation had increased, with 44% stating it had risen significantly, even as it has moderated.

Recent official figures showed that U.S. inflation dropped faster than expected to 3% in June, more than six points below the peak of over 9% reached two years earlier.

At the same time, only 32% of voters said they had benefited from the recent surge on Wall Street, with 49% stating they had not benefited "at all" from the record highs in equities.

"Trump is still leading Biden on handling the economy," said Erik Gordon of Ross. "Given that the economy is the most important factor driving voter decisions, this could be a significant factor in the election."