White House official: We'll never actually know what the unemployment rate was in October

Hassett, serving as the National Economic Council (NEC) Director, told reporters on November 13, 2025 that because of the 43-day federal shutdown:

• The household survey portion of the October employment report wasn’t conducted — meaning the official unemployment rate may never be known. Reuters
• He estimated that roughly 60,000 non-federal private-sector jobs were lost due to the shutdown’s ripple effect:

“The Council of Economic Advisers estimates 60,000 non-federal workers lost their jobs because of the ripple effects of the shutdown.” Reuters

• He added that the weekly cost to the economy was about $15 billion, and growth could be knocked down by 1.0-1.5 percentage points in Q4. Reuters

In other words: this isn’t purely federal-employee furloughs, but spill-over into the broader economy (business travel, services, contractors) triggering job losses beyond the government workforce.

Fact-Check & Context

✅ What the numbers show

• Independent media corroborate the ~60,000 figure:
  • According to a report: “60,000 – The number of workers outside of the federal government who lost their jobs due to the economic effects…” ABC News
  • Another outlet quotes the “we’re probably going to see something like 60,000 job losses because of the shutdown…” line. Anadolu Ajansı
• The shutdown is indeed the longest in U.S. history at 43 days (October 1–November 12, 2025). Wikipedia

⚠️ What remains uncertain

• While the 60k figure is the estimate from the CEA/NEC via Hassett, the methodology, breakdown (by sector/state), or permanence of those losses are not fully detailed publicly.
• The statement that the “unemployment rate may never be known” underscores the missing household survey for October — so comparisons will be blurred. Reuters
• Some of the losses may be “temporary” or reversed once normal operations resume and furloughed/contract workers return — though Hassett flagged some may be “permanent destruction.” Anadolu Ajansı

Why this matters

• Knowing that ~60k private-sector jobs may have been lost gives a read on hidden downside risk in the labour market.
• It signals that economic slack may be building rather than shrinking, which has implications for consumer spending, corporate earnings, and hence market sentiment.
• From a policy perspective — both fiscal and monetary — this disruption complicates decision-making because key data (jobs/unemployment) is compromised.

Market & Options Flow Implications

1. Broader market risk

• The loss of private-sector jobs weakens the cycle: less employment → less consumption → slower corporate revenue growth. That can lower growth expectations.
• If markets interpret this as a weakening labour market, that may raise the probability of a slowdown, which could depress cyclical stocks.
• The uncertainty around official data means markets may over-react to partial signals and sentiment may dominate fundamentals for a period.

2. Options & hedging themes to watch

• Implied Volatility (IV) may rise across equities, especially cyclical sectors, as traders price in downside risk from a weaker jobs market.
• Skew shifts: If the market anticipates more downside than upside, put options may become relatively more expensive compared to calls (put skew steepens).
• Hedging flows: Large flows in protection (deep OTM puts) on index ETFs or economic sensitive stocks may be early warning signs.

3. Tickers to monitor via Unusual Whales

• SPY (S&P 500 ETF) — for broad market hedge flows.
• XLY (Consumer Discretionary ETF) — high sensitivity to consumer spending.
• XLI (Industrial ETF) — labour-intensive sectors may be more exposed to job losses.
  You can monitor all of these via Unusual Whales’s flow dashboard to catch large blocks, skew changes and unusual activity: Unusual Whales Flow & Dashboard

Final Takeaway

The estimated ~60,000 private-sector job losses from the shutdown amplify a theme that the damage from the funding lapse goes well beyond the federal workforce. For markets and options traders, the message is: watch growth risk.
Missing data, hidden job losses, and upside uncertainty = elevated risk. Use options flow, skew movement and large block trades (via Unusual Whales) to gauge when sentiment shifts and hedge accordingly.