Wholesale egg prices are up 150% from a year ago
The rapid spread of bird flu among U.S. poultry flocks is driving egg prices to levels comparable to, or even surpassing, those seen in December 2022 during the post-pandemic inflation surge.
In November, the average cost of a dozen Grade A large eggs rose to $3.65, up from $3.37 in October and $2.50 at the start of the year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The ongoing battle with a deadly strain of H5N1 continues to disrupt the nation’s egg supply.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that the egg-laying hen population dropped by 3% in October compared to the previous year, leaving 315 million birds and resulting in a 4% decrease in egg production. The consumer price index (CPI) reveals that egg prices have surged 37.5% year-over-year, while overall food prices increased by 2.4%.
As holiday shopping accelerates, smaller hen flocks due to prolonged bird flu losses exacerbate the shortage. Wholesale prices for large eggs in the Midwest climbed to $5.57 per dozen on Wednesday, a 150% increase from the previous year, breaking the December 2022 record of $5.46, according to Expana, a commodity data firm.
In California, where strict regulations prohibit caged hens, egg prices have reached a record $8.85 per dozen. Some stores have begun capping purchases to manage demand.
The $67 billion poultry industry faces a grim outlook. The USDA has reduced its forecasts for egg production and exports in 2025 while raising its price predictions. Bird flu continues to devastate flocks, with California recently declaring a state of emergency after H5N1 was detected in hundreds of dairies. Of the 35 million egg-laying hens culled this year due to the virus, nearly half were affected in the past three months.
Iowa, the nation’s leading egg-producing state, recently began culling a flock of 4.2 million hens that tested positive for the virus.
Egg prices, a key indicator of consumer economic sentiment, have become a political flashpoint. Inflation, driven by rising grocery costs, remains a top concern for voters. President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on lowering grocery prices but has acknowledged the difficulty of achieving that goal.
Concerns are also mounting over the potential for bird flu to spark a new pandemic. Last week, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported the first severe human case of bird flu this year in Louisiana, involving an individual who kept backyard flocks. To date, 61 human infections have been recorded, primarily linked to contact with dairy cattle. While the H5 variants affecting cattle and poultry differ, the cattle strain has also infected domestic cats in California, killing two and sickening three others.
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told Reuters that the USDA has allocated funds for poultry vaccine purchases and suggested that the incoming Trump administration should continue vaccine development efforts. U.S. farmers have called for approval to vaccinate chickens, turkeys, and cattle against bird flu, particularly ahead of the wildfowl migration season.
Congress has also urged the USDA to accelerate vaccine research. In a letter led by Representatives Randy Feenstra and Jim Costa, lawmakers emphasized that the outbreak shows no signs of abating. However, Vilsack has previously warned that widespread vaccination could harm exports if trading partners fear the vaccine may conceal the virus's presence.
In a March letter to Congress, Vilsack noted that a broad vaccination campaign for commercial poultry was not feasible in the short term.