Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025

U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was largely driven by investment in data centers and information processing technology, according to Harvard economist Jason Furman. Excluding those technology-related categories, Furman estimated that GDP growth would have been just 0.1% on an annualized basis — a near standstill that underscores how critical high-tech infrastructure has become to the overall economy.

Although investment in information-processing equipment and software accounted for only about 4% of total U.S. GDP in the first half of the year, Furman noted it was responsible for roughly 92% of the growth during that period. He added that while the economy likely would not have completely stalled without the AI-driven expansion — as lower interest rates and electricity prices might have supported other sectors — growth would have been far weaker.

Major technology firms such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Nvidia have invested tens of billions of dollars in new and upgraded data centers to meet surging demand for artificial intelligence and large language models. Spending by these “hyperscalers” has expanded more than fourfold in recent years, now nearing $400 billion annually.

The pace and concentration of this investment have made the technology sector a dominant force in shaping U.S. economic performance. While headline growth remains strong, much of it stems from a single industry, raising questions about how sustainable such tech-led expansion will be if momentum in data center development begins to slow.