Canada Is Preparing for a Long Shot US Invasion, Per BBC

Carney says preparing for the unthinkable is risk management

Canada is preparing for a long shot US invasion, a scenario Prime Minister Mark Carney says he has war gamed even though the risk is low and the likelihood is highly improbable, per the BBC.

Carney told The New York Times he had a responsibility to consider all possibilities as the US and Canada relationship is redefined under the Donald Trump presidency, calling the work just risk management.

President Trump has repeatedly floated making Canada the 51st state and imposed global tariffs, and in 2025 he said it was highly unlikely the US would ever use force against Canada, saying he would use economic pressure instead.

Why experts still call it a long shot

The White House told the BBC that President Trump has done more than anyone to protect the great people of Canada. Military experts also told the BBC an invasion is a long shot, pointing to deep defense cooperation between the two countries.

Lt-Gen Christopher Coates, a former Royal Canadian Air Force officer with 34 years of service, told the BBC he never considered the possibility of a military attack coming from US territory during his career. Both countries are NATO members and collaborate closely on defense, including NORAD.

The concern is still weighing on the public. After the US captured Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela in January, a Leger poll suggested more than 30 percent of Canadians believed a US invasion was likely.

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How this could hit the options market

Even a low probability rupture between the US and Canada matters for trade, energy, and defense supply chains that are built on the assumption the border never becomes a risk factor.

Watch EWC, XLE, LMT, and SHOP for flow if tariff or sovereignty headlines intensify.

Currency and rates traders will price this through the Canadian dollar first, so equity options in Canada-exposed names deserve a closer look on any new comments from Ottawa or Washington.

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