Geopolitics Trump: Iran Privately Agrees to Deal, Publicly Refuses Trump says Iran has privately agreed to a deal but is refusing publicly, as reports suggest he may drop nuclear demands in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil, defense, and energy names in focus.
Geopolitics Pakistan: US and Iran close to a peace arrangement or a deal Pakistan’s defense minister says the US and Iran are close to a peace arrangement over the Strait of Hormuz. Oil erased gains on the headline as traders weigh whether the ceasefire path is real.
Politics Trump Secretly Flew Out of Turkey in Catering Container Amid Iran Threat Trump was secretly moved off Air Force One in Ankara via an airport catering truck and flown out of Turkey on a smaller C-32A jet amid a credible Iranian assassination threat, per reports.
Energy US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls Below 300M Barrels, Lowest Since 1983 The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 298.7 million barrels last week, the lowest level since January 1983, as Iran war disruptions keep pressure on global crude supply.
Geopolitics Trump Demands Iran Pay U.S. Compensation, Rejects Tehran's Damage Claim Trump rejected Iran's demand for war-damage compensation and countered with his own reparations claim, keeping Middle East risk and oil headline sensitivity elevated.
Geopolitics Trump May 'Walk Away' From Iran War Without Nuclear Deal if Hormuz Reopens: WSJ Trump has privately told senior aides he may walk away from the Iran war without a nuclear deal if Tehran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, per WSJ. Iran has since raised its price for reopening the waterway.
Geopolitics Israel Rejects Trump's 15-Point Gaza Peace Plan, Netanyahu Says Netanyahu says Israel rejects Trump's 15-point Board of Peace plan for Gaza, demanding Hamas fully disarm before any Israeli withdrawal, reopening Middle East risk for markets.
Geopolitics Iran Sets Steep Demands to Reopen Strait of Hormuz, Rattling Oil Markets Iran’s Supreme National Security Council says the Strait of Hormuz stays shut until the US lifts its blockade, ends sanctions, pulls troops, pays reparations, and releases frozen assets. Oil and defense names in focus.
Geopolitics Trump says Iran talks ‘going very well’ as Hormuz deal nears Trump says U.S.-Iran talks are moving along nicely, with a potential 60-day Strait of Hormuz shipping framework possibly landing within days. Oil, defense, and shipping names are all in play.
Politics Japan Asks US Government To Stop Using Mario, Pokémon, Naruto In Memes Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly asked the US government to stop using Mario, Pokémon and Naruto in official memes, warning of damage to the franchises.
Energy Iran Considers Banning US and Israeli Vessels from Strait of Hormuz Iran's parliament is reviewing a bill to regulate transit and potentially ban U.S. and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil markets.
Politics Democrats seek Pentagon probe of Trump sons' $3.2B defense portfolio Democratic lawmakers are asking the Pentagon IG to investigate $3.2B in federal awards to 15 defense-tech firms backed by Trump sons via 1789 Capital and American Ventures.
Markets FAA, NTSB Probe Marine One Near-Miss With Commercial Jet Over DC The FAA and NTSB are investigating a momentary loss of separation between Marine One carrying President Trump and a commercial jet near Reagan National Airport in Washington, DC.
Geopolitics Iran Signals Willingness to Reopen Strait of Hormuz as Deal Nears Iran has signaled willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S., Iran and Oman closing in on an interim deal. Oil slid and equities rallied on the news.
Markets US World Cup Host Cities Chase FIFA for Millions in Unpaid Legacy Funds US World Cup host cities say FIFA verbally promised each of them $1M in legacy funds and never paid, even as the governing body booked a record $15B revenue cycle.
Macro US-Japan Joint Yen Intervention Remains Ongoing, per Reuters The US and Japan have confirmed an ongoing joint yen-buying intervention, the first coordinated operation since 1998, with both sides signaling readiness for further action to defend the yen from 40-year lows.
Geopolitics Iran Denies Trump's Claim of Strait of Hormuz Reopening Deal Iran denied Trump's claim that a preliminary deal had been reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying the waterway stays closed while US hostile actions continue.
Geopolitics US Embassies in Middle East Warn Americans of Flight Risks as Iran Tensions Rise US embassies in roughly 10 Middle East countries told Americans to prepare for flight cancellations and airspace closures as tensions with Iran escalate and oil ticks higher.
Energy Chevron Profit Nearly Quadruples as Gas Hits $4 Amid Iran War Chevron profit jumped 385% to $12.07B and Exxon doubled to $14.53B as the U.S.-Iran conflict pushed Brent above $100 and U.S. gas prices past $4 a gallon.
Geopolitics Trump Cancels Planned U.S. Strike on Iran Amid Potential Deal President Trump cancels planned U.S. strike on Iran, citing progress toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address Iran's nuclear program.
Markets FIFA scraps $20B World Cup sell-off plan after UEFA boycott FIFA has scrapped its $20 billion plan to sell private stakes in the World Cup after UEFA’s 55 nations voted to boycott and senior officials resigned in protest.
Geopolitics Sánchez calls Ceuta migrant surge an ‘attack’ on Spain Spain's PM Pedro Sánchez called the crossing of up to 60,000 migrants into Ceuta from Morocco an attack and a violation of territorial integrity, as Italy and France tightened borders with Spain.
Macro Bessent's Camp David 'To-Do' List: Buy $5-10B in Japanese Yen A Reuters photo of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's notepad at Camp David revealed a plan to buy $5-10 billion in Japanese yen, hinting at the first U.S. FX intervention since 2011.
Energy China Leads Global Nuclear Buildout With 39 Reactors Under Construction China has 39 nuclear reactors under construction, more than the rest of the top ten combined, per the World Nuclear Association. The US, France, and Canada have none.
Markets Jamie Dimon Warns Markets Underestimate Risks; Avoids Stocks and Treasurys JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns that markets are underestimating geopolitical and fiscal risks, advising against buying stocks or long-term Treasurys at current valuations.
