Jamie Dimon: ‘We’re in a Bull Market’ — But It’s a ‘Little Tsunami’

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told a Council on Foreign Relations audience that equities are riding a wave that is tough to fight, while warning that longer-term risks are being underpriced. The headline quote: “We’re in a bull market. It’s like a little tsunami. When that kind of thing happens, it’s very hard to stop.”

What Dimon actually said

Dimon made the comments at a June 21 Council on Foreign Relations event. He acknowledged the strength of the tape but flagged investor complacency in the face of mounting geopolitical strain.

“I am surprised because I think that you have Ukraine, Iran, oil, Russia, and our relationship with China,” Dimon said, listing the risks he believes markets are underpricing.

The bull case he can’t ignore

Even Dimon admitted the near-term setup is hard to fade. He acknowledged powerful near-term supports, including roughly $700 billion in artificial-intelligence capital spending, unemployment near 4.3%, and gross domestic product growth of about 2%.

Consumers have also been given a boost by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. That stimulus, combined with AI capex, is doing a lot of the heavy lifting under the index.

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The risk Dimon keeps circling

This is not Dimon’s first warning, and traders know it. At the Reagan National Economic Forum in May, Dimon called the market “exuberant” without calling it a bubble. He used nearly identical language in a Bloomberg interview last fall, calling the bull run unmistakable even as he flagged stretched valuations. He has been circling the same idea for months, sharpening it with each appearance.

The structural worry is bigger than any single headline. Dimon described shifting “tectonic plates” under the economy, the kind of slow pressure that does not show up in a quarterly print but reshapes the ground over years.

Why the metaphor matters for positioning

The tsunami framing cuts both ways: momentum is hard to stop on the way up, and historically hard to stop on the way down too. Even Goldman Sachs, while raising its target, noted that a sharp jump in momentum and unusually narrow market breadth are “emerging as cautionary signals.”

A narrow set of chip and AI names is doing most of the heavy lifting under this index. That concentration is the variable to watch if sentiment shifts.

Options market and stocks to watch

JPM — watch for flow reaction to Dimon’s commentary and any shift in big-bank positioning into the back half of the year.

NVDA — the poster child of the $700B AI capex cycle Dimon cited; watch for sensitivity to any ROI doubt.

SPY — the cleanest proxy for the ‘tsunami’ tape; watch for hedging flow if geopolitical risk gets repriced.

XLE — oil and Middle East exposure was front and center in Dimon’s risk list; watch energy as the geopolitical tell.

GS — Goldman just lifted its S&P target but flagged narrow breadth; watch for any further sell-side recalibration.

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