Dimon: Bull Market Is Like a ‘Little Tsunami’ That’s Hard to Stop

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told a Council on Foreign Relations audience this week that equities are riding a wave that’s tough to fight, even as he sounded the alarm on longer-term risks investors keep brushing aside. He warned that the current bull market is “like a little tsunami” that is “very hard to stop,” cautioning that geopolitical and economic risks are building beneath a surging stock market.

What Dimon actually said

Speaking at a Council on Foreign Relations event on June 21, Dimon used a vivid image to describe the market’s momentum, adding: “We’re in a bull market. It’s like a little tsunami. When that kind of thing happens, it’s very hard to stop.”

The tone wasn’t pure bull. The Wall Street veteran admitted he’s a little taken aback by the market’s apparent complacency at present. Speaking in a discussion held by the Council on Foreign Relations, Dimon said: “I am surprised because I think that you have Ukraine, Iran, oil, Russia, and our relationship with China.”

The bull case Dimon won’t deny

Dimon didn’t pretend the tape was irrational. He acknowledged powerful near-term supports, including roughly $700 billion in artificial-intelligence capital spending, unemployment near 4.3%, and gross domestic product growth of about 2%.

Consumers have also been given a boost by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. While research suggests much of that relief has been offset by fuel price rises resulting from the Middle East conflict, it is nevertheless a stimulus injection that helped the economy.

The price action backs him up. The S&P 500 is up nearly 80% over the past five years, the Nasdaq up more than 86%.

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The risks he says are underpriced

Dimon’s concern isn’t the next quarter — it’s the tectonic shifts under the surface. Dimon said he was concerned about the shifting “tectonic plates” shaping the economy’s trajectory over the much longer term. “I am quite worried about it,” the banker added. “They may determine the economy, but it may be a year from now, a few years from now, or maybe it will all be reserved somehow.”

The thesis: AI capex has yet to prove ROI, the consumer is leaning on temporary fiscal support, and the geopolitical map keeps getting messier. For Dimon, the combination of unresolved geopolitical tensions, heavy AI spending that has yet to prove its return on investment, and a consumer propped up by temporary fiscal measures creates a setup where the downside risks are being underpriced.

Why traders mostly shrugged

Dimon has cried wolf before, and the tape knows it. Still, the immediate reaction on Wall Street has been muted. Traders have grown accustomed to Dimon’s warnings, which have at times been early. The JPMorgan chief has cautioned about economic headwinds before, only to see markets continue their ascent.

That doesn’t mean the warning is wrong — it means the bar for hedging is higher. The “little tsunami” framing cuts both ways: momentum is hard to stop on the way up, and historically, hard to stop on the way down too.

Options market and stocks to watch

If Dimon’s read on AI-driven momentum is right, watch the names carrying the tape:

• JPM — watch for flow reaction to Dimon’s commentary and any shift in big-bank positioning into the back half of the year.
• NVDA — the poster child of the $700B AI capex cycle Dimon cited; watch for sensitivity to any ROI doubt.
• SPY — the cleanest proxy for the “tsunami” tape; watch for hedging flow if geopolitical risk gets repriced.
• XLE — oil and Middle East exposure was front and center in Dimon’s risk list; watch energy as the geopolitical tell.
• VIX — watch for any sustained bid in vol that signals complacency is breaking.

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