Only 11% of Europeans view the US as an ally, poll finds

Transatlantic sentiment just hit a record low, and the trade implications sit squarely in defense, energy, and EU fiscal policy. A new European Council on Foreign Relations survey shows a sharp erosion of European faith in Washington as a security partner, with knock-on effects for procurement and capital flows.

The headline number

Only 11% of Europeans across 15 countries view the United States as an ally, a historic low and down from 16% half a year ago and 22% in November 2024, according to a survey published by the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Half of those polled view the U.S. as a necessary partner, while 25% see America as a rival or an adversary. The percentage of respondents who view the U.S. as a rival or an adversary grew in several countries, especially Denmark, France, Spain and Switzerland.

The think tank described the shift as a collapse in European faith in the U.S., based on responses from nearly 20,000 people.

Why confidence cracked

Majorities in all surveyed countries expressed doubts that the U.S. would come to their defence in the event of an attack. That is the single most important line for defense contractors and sovereign debt desks.

The authors cited recent actions by President Trump as likely influencing respondents, including his threats to leave NATO and annex Greenland, striking Iran without including European nations in the planning, and planning the withdrawal of some U.S. forces from the continent.

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Defense spending and EU borrowing

Europeans were four percentage points more likely than last year to support increased national defence spending. Italy is the only country where a clear majority remains opposed.

47% of respondents across the region back the idea of collective EU borrowing to fund defence initiatives, with the strongest support recorded in Portugal (59%), Denmark (56%), and the Netherlands (55%). That points toward a bigger European defense capex cycle funded at the bloc level.

Buy European, not American

Most respondents favored reducing dependence on U.S. military hardware in favor of European alternatives, with Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden reporting the highest support for the idea of buying European. Poland was the only exception, with a majority in favor of increased U.S. weapons purchases, while Germany, Italy, and Hungary backed the idea of collective EU borrowing to fund defense initiatives.

That is a direct headwind for U.S. primes if it turns into policy, and a tailwind for European defense names.

Energy and Ukraine

On energy policy, 44% of Europeans opposed resuming oil and gas imports from Russia despite rising costs. Translation, LNG import demand from non-Russian suppliers remains structurally supported.

Most respondents continue to support Ukraine as an ally or strategic partner, though consensus weakens when it comes to sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine post-war or expanding EU membership eastward.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch for reaction across defense, aerospace, and energy names tied to European procurement and LNG flows.

• LMT: watch for headline risk if EU procurement tilts toward European suppliers.
• RTX: watch for order-flow commentary tied to NATO capex and any Buy European shift.
• NOC: watch for exposure to European missile defense contracts under review.
• GE: watch for defense and aerospace crossover exposure to any European equipment substitution.
• LNG: watch for continued European appetite for non-Russian gas supply.

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