Americans Have Spent Over $100 Billion More on Fuel During the Iran War

The war with Iran is sticking Americans with a 12-figure bill at the pump. U.S. consumers have collectively spent about $107 billion more on gasoline and diesel during the Iran conflict than they would have without the war, according to estimates by the Climate Solutions Lab at Brown University, cited by the Wall Street Journal. That averages to more than $500 million a day since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. ## Gasoline takes the biggest share Of the total, gasoline accounts for roughly $59 billion of the additional spending. Diesel makes up another estimated $48 billion, bringing the combined wartime fuel premium to about $107 billion. Another tracker puts the figure slightly lower, at $100.9 billion, or more than $770 per household. ## Oil above $100 is propelling inflation Oil prices' lurch above $100 a barrel is boosting overall inflation and helped push the 10-year Treasury yield past 5% for the first time in years. The rising costs are clouding the Federal Reserve's outlook, because prices at the pump are forcing some lower- and middle-income families to save less or curb spending elsewhere. "It's definitely a drag on the economy," said Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. ## The price tag will keep growing A recent surge in crude assures the bill will only grow in the weeks ahead. Goldman Sachs has warned that the price of a barrel of oil could exceed $120 as tensions in the Middle East escalate and global supply chains stay disrupted. The war-driven fuel costs are still small relative to the more than $22 trillion in personal-consumption expenditures the Commerce Department anticipates this year. But the sum is far more than the projected $69 billion Americans are spending in 2026 on nursery, elementary and secondary schools. — Do you want to see how to make more plays? Do you want to find gains yourself? Unusual Whales helps you find market opportunities through our market tide, historical options flow, GEX, and much, much more. [Create a free account here](https://unusualwhales.com/login?ref=blubber) to start conquering the market with Unusual Whales — ## Options market and stocks to watch Sustained $100-plus oil is a tailwind for producers and refiners, and a headwind for everyone who burns fuel. Expect continued call flow in integrated majors like [XOM](https://unusualwhales.com/stock/XOM/overview) and [CVX](https://unusualwhales.com/stock/CVX/overview), plus refiners such as [VLO](https://unusualwhales.com/stock/VLO/overview), as long as crude stays elevated and Goldman Sachs' $120 call stays on the table. The flip side is margin pressure for fuel-heavy consumers of energy. Airlines like [DAL](https://unusualwhales.com/stock/DAL/overview) and [UAL](https://unusualwhales.com/stock/UAL/overview), along with freight and logistics names like [UPS](https://unusualwhales.com/stock/UPS/overview) and [FDX](https://unusualwhales.com/stock/FDX/overview), face rising operating costs, making downside hedging and put flow worth watching. Higher pump prices also squeeze the consumer directly, which can bleed into discretionary spending. Watch consumer discretionary names and the broader retail complex for weakness as the $500-million-a-day fuel drag persists. Want more market intelligence? [Create your free Unusual Whales account](https://unusualwhales.com/login?ref=blubber) for options flow, market tide, GEX, and the full toolkit.