Israel Warns US of Fresh Iranian Plot to Assassinate Trump

Israel has passed intelligence to Washington warning of a fresh Iranian plot to assassinate President Donald Trump, according to reporting from The Wall Street Journal that was confirmed by multiple outlets on Thursday. The warning lands as the US-Iran ceasefire frays and both sides trade strikes around the Strait of Hormuz.

For markets, the story adds another layer of geopolitical risk on top of an already tense energy backdrop.

What Israel told the US

Israel shared intelligence with the United States that Iran had recently devised a new plan to assassinate President Donald Trump, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN, adding another layer of tension as a ceasefire deal between the countries comes under strain.

One source said the US had picked up a steady drumbeat of intelligence in recent weeks about possible plans to assassinate Trump, but the warning from Israel was new and concerned a specific plot. The details of the plot were not immediately clear, and the US had not vetted it themselves nor were they tracking it before the Israeli warning.

Skepticism inside the US intel community

Not everyone in Washington is taking the Israeli warning at face value. Other American officials suggested the Israeli report could be an effort to sway Trump’s decision-making as he weighs whether to intensify American military action against Iran.

Two US officials told Channel 12 news that the information related to general dialogue between Iranian officials on potentially assassinating the US president, rather than a specific plot. That framing matters, because a hardened intelligence finding versus general chatter changes the odds of a US military escalation.

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Trump’s response

“They want to take out the US leader — me,” Trump told reporters Wednesday. “I’m on whatever list. I saw this morning I’m on every single one of their lists. And so far, I guess I’ve been a bit lucky, but maybe that doesn’t last very long.”

Trump also said he’d recently learned of a new list that ranked him as Iran’s top assassination target, though it’s not clear if he was referring to the new Israeli intelligence.

The diplomatic backdrop

A US official said diplomatic efforts with Iran are still underway behind the scenes, despite a resumption of strikes and Trump’s declaration that the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran was over. Washington and Tehran are working toward reaching a nuclear deal by mid-August, and officials said there had been preparations for potential strikes Thursday night before foregoing them in favor of diplomacy.

Netanyahu has voiced deep doubts toward Trump’s efforts at diplomacy with Iran, and has clashed with Trump over Israeli military action in Lebanon. The two men spoke by phone Thursday, and Netanyahu is expected to visit Washington soon.

Options market and stocks to watch

Geopolitical risk of this flavor tends to push flow into defense, energy, and safe-haven names. Watch for:

LMT — Lockheed Martin, a bellwether for defense demand any time US-Iran headlines escalate.

RTX — RTX, watch for flow tied to missile and air-defense exposure.

XOM — Exxon Mobil, sensitive to any headline threatening Strait of Hormuz shipping.

USO — the oil ETF, a direct read on the crude risk premium if strikes resume.

GLD — gold ETF, watch for safe-haven bid on any escalation.

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