Netanyahu Was Secretly Warned by UAE President Before Oct. 7 Attack

New reporting alleges that United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan personally warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Hamas was planning a major operation, days before the Oct. 7, 2023 attack. Netanyahu denies the account, but former officials and a second major outlet have now backed the core of the story.

What the reports say

UAE President Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Hamas was planning a major operation against Israel days before the October 7 massacre, a Haaretz investigation said. During a 45-minute conversation held 10 days before the massacre, MBZ reportedly warned Netanyahu that then-Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was planning a major operation against Israel.

The prime minister reportedly responded that he believed Hamas intended to operate in the West Bank and reassured the UAE president that Israel was prepared for any scenario. Haaretz also reported that Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel separately contacted Netanyahu around the same period to warn that Hamas was planning something unusual, a terrifying operation.

The warning never reached security chiefs

The warning from the Emirati leader never reached the leaders of Israel’s security establishment, according to five former senior Israeli officials. Both former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and IDF chief of staff Herzi Halevi told Haaretz that they had not been informed of the warning delivered by the UAE president.

According to the investigation, Netanyahu did not mention the warning at all during a meeting on the situation in the Gaza Strip that he convened with Israel’s security chiefs several days later, on Oct. 1.

Do you want to see how to make more plays? Do you want to find gains yourself?

Unusual Whales helps you find market opportunities through our market tide, historical options flow, GEX, and much, much more.

Create a free account here to start conquering the market with Unusual Whales.

Netanyahu denies it, but the NYT corroborated key details

The Prime Minister’s Office categorically denied the central allegation in a comment to The Jerusalem Post, calling it an absolute lie and saying Netanyahu did not speak with the president of the United Arab Emirates during the period in question and did not receive any warning from him.

But a person who said they had spoken with Sheikh Mohammed and another person who said they had been briefed by someone on the call between the two leaders told the New York Times that the Emirati leader had secretly reported to Netanyahu that Hamas was considering a major attack. Sheikh Mohammed also mentioned his September 2023 phone call with Netanyahu months later in a discussion with William Burns, the CIA director at the time, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett backed the report, telling Tel Aviv-based radio station 103FM he knew for a fact the report is true.

Why it matters for markets

Days after the alleged warning, thousands of Hamas fighters and their allies launched an invasion over the Gaza border into southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking some 250 more hostage in the deadliest attack on Israel in the country’s history. The political fallout from these reports lands as Netanyahu faces an election fight and as Gaza ceasefire diplomacy remains unresolved.

Any escalation of the political crisis in Israel, or renewed regional tension around the Abraham Accords, tends to bleed into defense contractor demand, oil risk premiums, and safe-haven flows. The UAE normalised ties with Israel in 2020 as part of the US-brokered Abraham Accords under President Donald Trump’s first administration.

Options market and stocks to watch

Traders may want to keep an eye on names with direct exposure to Middle East risk and defense spending:

• LMT — Lockheed Martin, watch for continued bid on any escalation narrative tied to Israel and regional defense demand.
• RTX — RTX Corp, watch for flow tied to missile defense and munitions restocking demand.
• NOC — Northrop Grumman, watch for defense sector rotation on political fallout.
• XLE — Energy sector ETF, watch for oil-linked moves if regional risk premium widens.
• EIS — Israel ETF, watch for reaction to Israeli political instability headlines.

For more on geopolitics and market-moving headlines, see other news on Unusual Whales.

Want more market intelligence? Create your free Unusual Whales account for options flow, market tide, GEX, and the full toolkit.