Rubio: Diesel Would Be $18 a Gallon If Not for Trump

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told NBC News that diesel prices in the US would be running around $18 a gallon if not for President Trump, a defense of the administration as fuel costs sit at record highs heading into the midterms.

What Rubio actually said

Rubio claimed that if it weren’t for Trump’s war with Iran, diesel prices would be “triple” what they are now, with the $18 figure surfacing in a widely circulated clip from his Tuesday interview round.

The comments landed as the average gallon of gas sits around $4.45 to $4.46 and diesel is higher than it has ever been in the country.

The numbers behind the backlash

Diesel averaged about $6.53 per gallon on Tuesday, according to AAA, up roughly 93 cents from the prior month and $2.84 from a year ago. Diesel prices have surged 83% so far this year, on track for the biggest annual increase since AAA started tracking in 2000.

Diesel cost $3.52 a gallon on average before the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, which led to a months-long conflict that has dramatically slowed oil shipments through the Persian Gulf.

Why diesel specifically is broken

The Iran war has cut off diesel exports from the Middle East, one of the most important regions for diesel. Ukrainian drone strikes have also knocked out a series of refineries in Russia, the world’s No. 2 diesel exporter.

Experts told The Hill that high diesel prices were due to both higher oil prices tied to the US-Iran conflict and damage to refineries from both the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars.

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The export ban debate

The Trump administration is considering a ban on exports of diesel as high prices put a crunch on American agriculture and trucking. Senate Republicans are clashing over the proposal to embargo diesel exports to lower domestic prices amid high costs for farmers.

Senator Chuck Grassley posted on X calling for an “embargo on diesel exports,” and Representative Tim Burchett introduced legislation on the House floor that would ban diesel exports. An export ban would tighten global supply and could push international crack spreads even higher, a key variable for refiner earnings.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch for continued volatility across the energy complex as traders price in both the record diesel prints and headline risk from a potential export ban.

• XOM: Watch for flow around Exxon as an integrated major with heavy refining exposure and Gulf Coast diesel output.
• CVX: Chevron sits in the same bucket, sensitive to both crude and crack spreads.
• VLO: Valero is one of the most diesel-levered refiners in the US. An export ban would be a direct headline risk on margins.
• PSX: Phillips 66 shares similar refiner sensitivity to distillate cracks.
• USO: The oil ETF is the cleanest read on crude tape as Strait of Hormuz headlines continue. See more coverage in other news.

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