SpaceX IPO Could Refinance 8% of US Current-Account Deficit in a Day

SpaceX's upcoming listing is shaping up to be more than an equity event. Currency strategists say the offering is large enough to move the needle on US capital flows the moment it prices.

The macro math behind the IPO

Currency strategists at Commerzbank, led by Volkmar Baur, have studied the possible effects of SpaceX's IPO, which is set to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation.

With the U.S. current account deficit at $190.7 billion last quarter, the SpaceX IPO could refinance a ‘not insignificant' 8% of this deficit in one day, potentially boosting the U.S. dollar, especially against the euro if half of the capital inflows are from Europe.

Where the foreign bid comes from

Foreign investors, who typically account for about 20% of U.S. stock ownership, with European investors making up roughly half of that share, are expected to be key participants in the offering.

Baur estimates that around 20% of the IPO proceeds, or approximately $15 billion of the $75 billion raise, could come from overseas investors on the first day of trading. For FX traders, that is the channel: foreign capital converting into dollars to buy SPCX.

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Demand is already off the charts

The IPO has reportedly drawn more than $250 billion in investor demand ahead of its June 12 debut, far exceeding its $75 billion target and making it oversubscribed by roughly 3.5 to 4 times.

The SpaceX IPO 2026 is being structured to raise up to $75 billion through the sale of 555.6 million shares priced at $135 each, putting the company's implied valuation at roughly $1.8 trillion. If SpaceX reaches its $75 billion target, it would move past Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO, which previously held the record for the largest IPO ever.

The risks under the hood

SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone. The company's accumulated deficit reached $41.3 billion as of March 2026.

To prepare for its public debut, SpaceX secured a $20 billion bridge loan in March 2026. Of that total, roughly $17.5 billion went not toward SpaceX's core rocket or satellite operations, but toward refinancing debt tied to Elon Musk's other ventures — specifically X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, and xAI. Buyers of SPCX are, in effect, taking on exposure to the broader Musk portfolio.

The follow-on pipeline

The strategists added that the SpaceX IPO is just the beginning, with additional shares becoming available after lockup expirations and anticipated IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI in the near future.

But they noted that at least a portion of the IPOs will flow back out of the U.S., to purchase microchips and related supplies from South Korea and Taiwan. That partially offsets the dollar tailwind.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch for how related names trade into and out of the SPCX debut:

TSLA: Tesla shares often move on Musk-related catalysts and any read-through to the broader Musk balance sheet.

ASTS: AST SpaceMobile is a direct satellite-comms comp and tends to trade sensitively to Starlink headlines.

IRDM: Iridium Communications sits in the same satellite ecosystem and could see flows as investors rotate around SPCX.

NVDA: Watch for AI-adjacent names as strategists tie the IPO wave directly to the AI capex story.

FXE: For the FX angle, the euro-dollar pair is the cleanest expression of the ‘dollar bid' thesis flagged by Commerzbank.

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