Trump Says He Expects Stocks to Keep Climbing
Trump says he expects the stock market to keep going up, citing the Iran ceasefire and record highs. Here is what traders should watch as valuations stretch.
President Donald Trump told reporters he expects the stock market to keep going up, doubling down on his view that equities are validating his agenda. The comments came alongside a long riff on the Iran peace deal and how market action shapes his thinking.
What Trump actually said
At a G7-related press conference, Trump said that every time peace was discussed, the stock market shot up like a rocket ship and never went down. He also quipped that the stock market is more brilliant than anybody there is.
Trump has increasingly treated the stock market as a real-time referendum on his presidency, citing market gains as justification for many consequential decisions.
The tape backs the rhetoric, for now
The stock market under President Trump has produced gains despite sharp swings, with the S&P 500’s total return climbing nearly 30% since the November 5, 2024 election as of May 6, 2026. Bulls point to earnings, AI capex, and the Iran ceasefire as the props keeping the rally alive.
The April 8 ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran has helped lift the S&P 500 to new record highs as investors anticipated lower energy costs and broader market participation.
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The risks under the surface
Markets are floating near record highs, but US stocks are trading at historically expensive valuations. Wall Street executives are increasingly flagging the setup as stretched.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has said he thinks there will be a 10% to 20% drawdown in stocks sometime in the next one to two years. Translation: the “up only” narrative leaves little margin for an earnings miss or a policy surprise.
The headline-risk regime
What used to be multiday price swings are now one-day blips. When headlines about a conflict break, futures dip, oil prices spike and volatility rises, but in Trump’s second term the durations have shortened.
That conditioning has changed how traders react to political shocks, and is part of why Trump can keep talking up the tape without immediate pushback from price action. Watch for that reflex to be tested if tariffs or geopolitics re-escalate.
Options market and stocks to watch
SPY: The cleanest proxy for Trump’s “market scoreboard.” Watch for dealer positioning and GEX shifts near record highs.
QQQ: AI-led tech remains the engine of the rally. Watch for any rotation out of mega-cap tech if rates back up.
NVDA: The bellwether of the AI trade. Watch flow into longer-dated calls as a signal of conviction in the “up only” thesis.
USO: Energy is the swing factor on any Iran headline. Watch for spikes tied to Strait of Hormuz disruption.
VIX: With volatility compressed, watch for cheap hedges if Trump pivots back to tariff brinkmanship.
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