Trump: Iran War Will End Immediately After the Midterms

President Trump said the war with Iran will end “immediately” after the midterm election, the latest in a string of shifting timelines from the White House on when the U.S.-Israel campaign against Tehran will wrap up.

What Trump said

Trump has repeatedly signaled the war is close to done. “Any time I want it to end, it will end,” Trump was quoted as saying.

He has also framed the operation as ahead of schedule, telling Axios “The war is going great. We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period.”

Mixed messaging from Washington and Israel

The US president has repeatedly made pronouncements about the war ending soon, but Washington has not provided a clear timeline for concluding the military offensive. His own envoy Steve Witkoff, when asked how the war ends, said, “I don’t know.”

Israel is not on the same page. “The operation will continue without any time limit, as long as required, until we accomplish all objectives and achieve victory in the campaign,” Katz said, according to The Times of Israel.

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Iran’s conditions and the Hormuz risk

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian laid out on Wednesday Tehran’s conditions for ending the war, including compensation for the US-Israeli assault and “firm” international guarantees that Iran would not be attacked again.

Trump has separately warned that Iran could pay an “incalculable” price if its military disrupts oil tankers, as oil importers grapple with higher prices since the war began. The US and Israel have launched thousands of bombs against Iran, killing at least 1,300 people.

Why traders care

The war has kept a bid under crude and defense names, and any credible ceasefire — or extension — will move both. Economists warn the bill is already here. “Even if this ended today, and it doesn’t look like that, there has already been a large amount of resources expended on the war, the period of high oil prices will take a toll, and I would expect uncertainty to continue elevating oil prices going forward,” said Jason Furman, a top economist in the Obama White House and now an economics professor at Harvard University.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch for continued sensitivity in energy and defense names to every headline out of Washington and Tehran.

• XOM and CVX: Watch for oil-price beta if a ceasefire is announced or Hormuz risk escalates.
• USO: Watch for a fast unwind of the war premium in crude on any credible end-of-war signal.
• LMT and RTX: Watch defense flow for reaction to munitions replenishment orders versus a wind-down.
• SPY: Watch broad-tape reaction to geopolitical de-escalation into the midterms.

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