Trump Says the Iran War Will End "Very Soon," and That Energy Prices Will Fall Fast Once It Does
"As soon as I want it to end, it'll end"
President Donald Trump says the war with Iran is nearly over. Speaking to reporters on Thursday before departing Arizona for a rally in Montana, Trump said the conflict will end very soon and predicted a rapid drop in energy costs once it does.
"And Iran will end very shortly. It's gonna be over very shortly, and your energy prices will fall very rapidly, very fast," Trump said. He put the timeline in his own hands: "As soon as I want it to end, it'll end."
Objectives claimed, timetable withheld
Trump said the United States has achieved its central objective of keeping Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. "They won't have a nuclear weapon," he said.
At a rally in Bullhead City, Arizona, and in a primetime address, Trump said US operations had destroyed Iran's navy and badly damaged its air force and missile program, and he claimed the US has established control over the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which about a fifth of the world's petroleum passes.
He offered no timetable and announced no ceasefire or negotiations. At the rally he acknowledged the strikes had removed successive levels of Iranian leadership, saying, "I might have gone too far. I don't know who the hell to deal with." These claims have not been independently verified.
The strait is still dangerous
On the water, the war has not slowed. Maritime officials said two vessels sank near the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours this week after being hit by projectiles, and Iran says it is deploying new tactics against shipping in response to the US blockade of its ports and tougher sanctions imposed last month.
Oil markets are pricing both stories at once. Brent crude has traded around $104 to $106 a barrel, up sharply this year, and US gasoline averages just over $4 a gallon. Reuters/Ipsos polling in the past week found roughly two thirds of Americans want the US to work to end the conflict quickly.
The war began on February 28. A ceasefire that took effect April 8 was declared over by Trump on July 10, and fighting around the strait has continued since.
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Options market and stocks to watch
Oil is the trade. XOM and CVX carry the direct crude exposure, and a genuine end to the war is the single biggest downside catalyst for both, because the war premium is what has kept Brent above $100.
Defense is the other side of the headline. LMT and the prime contractors have run on the conflict, and a verified ceasefire would test how much of that move was the war itself.
Until there is a signed deal or a confirmed halt in attacks, treat the comments as headline risk in both directions and watch crude and energy flow on the Unusual Whales news feed.
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