Vance accuses Israel of manipulating US opinion to prolong Iran war

Vice President JD Vance has publicly accused elements of the Israeli government of running a funded influence campaign to shape US public opinion and keep the Iran war going. The comments, made on the Joe Rogan podcast, mark one of the sharpest public rifts between Washington and a key ally in recent memory, and land as the interim US-Iran ceasefire unravels.

What Vance actually said

Vance accused some members of Israel’s government of trying to influence US public opinion to oppose a deal to end the war with Iran, in an interview with podcaster Joe Rogan that aired Wednesday.

Vance said that, while he has good relationships with some members of the Israeli government, there are people within their system who are manipulating and trying to change American public opinion to keep the war going on indefinitely. He also told Rogan there is a literal foreign influence campaign being funded to tank the very deal he was pursuing.

The Time Magazine angle

Vance referenced a story published in Time magazine, which reported that Trump’s former campaign manager Brad Parscale was linked with an Israeli government-funded campaign paying conservative influencers to push their audiences toward denouncing the ceasefire between the US and Iran.

The VP also claimed the Israeli-linked influence campaign had targeted him personally, saying people are attacking him viciously for trying to accomplish the negotiation objective the president set for the country.

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Why traders should care

The US reached an agreement with Iran last month, known as the memorandum of understanding, that included a now-abandoned 60-day ceasefire and a condition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but tensions over the Strait have resumed and the US has intensified strikes on Iran while Tehran targeted US allies in the region.

Roughly five months in, 14 American service members are dead, more than 400 wounded, over $100 billion has been spent, the US arsenal is significantly depleted, the Strait of Hormuz is largely closed, and fuel prices have soared. Any widening split between Washington and Jerusalem is now a macro variable, not a headline sideshow.

House rejects aid cut

The House of Representatives on Wednesday rejected a measure to cut billions of dollars-worth of US aid to Israel, with the motion failing 314 to 104, though several Democrats voted in favor of ending the funding.

Former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas called Vance’s remarks unprecedented, telling Al Jazeera that no sitting US vice president has ever accused Israel of openly running a campaign to undermine American policy.

Options market and stocks to watch

With the Strait of Hormuz situation still fluid and the ceasefire unraveling, energy and defense remain the two clearest tape drivers. Watch for:

XOM and CVX: watch for sensitivity to crude moves if Hormuz flows stay disrupted.

LMT and RTX: watch for flow around the aid vote fallout and any escalation headlines, given ongoing munitions demand.

USO: watch for positioning as a cleaner proxy on Iran-headline risk in crude.

For more coverage of the story as it develops, see Unusual Whales news.

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