Wells Fargo sets 2027 S&P 500 target at 8,600–8,800

Wells Fargo Investment Institute, the bank’s wealth management arm, has set a 2027 year-end S&P 500 target range of 8,600 to 8,800, and lifted its 2026 range to 7,800–7,950 from a prior 7,400–7,950. The call leans on earnings, not multiple expansion.

The numbers behind the call

The bank raised its 2026 S&P 500 earnings-per-share estimate to $340 from $315 and bumped 2027 up to $390 from $365. The new target works out to roughly 23.4 times 2026 earnings, barely higher than the 23.2x multiple baked into the old target.

Almost the entire upgrade comes from higher expected profits, not investors getting more excited and paying up for the same stocks. Translation: this is an earnings call, not a re-rating call.

Where Wells Fargo sits versus the Street

The 2026 target is in line with peers that have also lifted year-end levels. Citi raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,700, with Scott Chronert pointing to stronger earnings expectations and AI-driven profit momentum, while Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end target to 8,000 from 7,600, citing stronger earnings growth, AI infrastructure spending, and a 2026 EPS forecast of $340.

Wells Fargo Investment Institute’s 2027 range of 8,600–8,800 puts it among the more constructive multi-year calls on the tape.

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The froth caveat

Wells Fargo isn’t pretending the market is cheap. The bank has openly acknowledged froth in parts of it, and certain names have clearly run further than their fundamentals alone would justify.

But froth in pockets and an overheated market overall are two different things, and Wells Fargo’s argument is that the second one isn’t true yet. The implied playbook is selectivity, not blanket risk-on.

What else is in the outlook

The firm continues to prefer companies that receive capital expenditures over those that spend it, and expects a catch-up rally in cyclical stocks at the expense of defensive sectors as a war appears to be ending.

Wells Fargo noted that sentiment has reset following the recent market decline, providing room for upside in artificial intelligence-related stocks.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch SPY and SPX for index-level positioning around the new target band, especially in longer-dated calls that would need a durable earnings tape to pay off.

On the AI capex side, watch NVDA and AVGO as recipients of the spend Wells Fargo wants to own, and WFC for any read-through to the bank itself. For broader context, see other market news.

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