1 in 4 White-Collar Workers Are Stalling Out, Per WSJ

A new study cited by the Wall Street Journal finds that roughly a quarter of American white-collar workers are stuck in a mid-career stall, going at least five years with no meaningful raise or promotion. The labor market looks healthy on the surface, but a large slice of professionals are quietly being left behind.

What the study found

The study, which tracked 1.3 million mid-career professionals across a range of industries over 25 years, determined that 24.2% of mid-career professionals are stalled in their workplaces. The researchers defined “mid-career” as the period roughly 10 to 15 years after a worker starts their professional career.

The report came from New York University’s School of Professional Studies in partnership with the Burning Glass Institute. “When you’re talking about a quarter of the workforce, you’re not talking about a niche problem,” said Matt Sigelman, president of the Burning Glass Institute.

Why it matters for the labor picture

As the researchers put it, unlike unemployment, this crisis is not tracked in official statistics, yet it results in underutilized talent for employers and significant cumulative lost wages for individuals. That is the kind of slack that does not show up in the monthly jobs print but shows up in consumer spending and wage growth.

Organizations have become flatter, offering fewer opportunities for advancement than they did a generation ago. Workers also have fewer chances to move up by switching companies or relocating.

The financial damage

The average stalled software developer misses out on $43,000 in wages over 15 years, researchers found. Stalled workers see roughly 30% wage growth compared with 71% growth in peers who have kept pace.

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Which industries are hit hardest

Stall rates vary dramatically across industries, ranging from a low of 20.7% in information technology to a high of 30.2% in public administration. Public administration likely tops the list because there are fewer senior roles to advance into.

The study also flagged capabilities that, when sharpened or highlighted in job searches, reduced the risk of a stall. They included common skills like public speaking and time management. Developing expertise in relationship-building, such as event planning and community outreach, also helped.

The AI overhang

Along with stalling wages and career advancement, many American workers are also dealing with concerns about artificial intelligence and automation shaking up the labor force. For traders, that is a real read-through into white-collar productivity tools, staffing firms, and consumer discretionary names that rely on professional-class spending.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch for reactions across names tied to white-collar labor, reskilling, and AI-driven productivity:

• MSFT: watch for flow tied to Copilot adoption as companies push productivity over headcount.
• LinkedIn parent MSFT remains the labor-data bellwether for hiring and skills demand.
• COUR and other reskilling plays: watch for interest if “adjacent pivots” become a louder corporate theme.
• MAN and RHI: staffing names are a direct tell on white-collar mobility and churn.
• WDAY: HR software exposure to how employers track and respond to stalled talent.

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