Bessent's Camp David 'To-Do' List: Buy $5-10B in Japanese Yen

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's notepad did the talking at Camp David on Friday. A Reuters photograph taken during President Donald Trump's cabinet meeting showed Bessent contemplating U.S. purchases of $5 billion to $10 billion worth of Japanese yen.

If executed, it would mark the first direct U.S. currency intervention in years, and traders in dollar-yen were quick to react.

What the notepad actually said

The Camp David notepad bore the underscored words “To Do” followed by “Buy Japanese Yen (JPY) $5-10 bil,” with Bessent's name card positioned immediately above it. The photograph was taken at 11:33 ET.

The note came after Reuters earlier reported the Treasury had put banks on alert for a possible U.S. intervention in the market for Japan's currency.

Why this matters

The U.S. Treasury has not intervened to prop up the yen since 2011, when it joined other G7 countries in a coordinated action after a devastating earthquake and tsunami rocked Japan. A unilateral U.S. move to buy yen would be a major policy shift.

The yen recently dipped to its weakest level since 1986, pressured by rising oil prices and other factors, which has raised the political stakes for both Tokyo and Washington.

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The tape reacted fast

There appeared to be another sizeable strengthening of the yen against the dollar during the late afternoon on Friday, with LSEG data showing the dollar dropped from about 158.9 yen at around 4:14 p.m. ET to about 157.6 yen just before 5 p.m., roughly a 0.8% move.

Japanese authorities had already stepped in to prop up the yen earlier on Friday in Tokyo, triggering a substantial strengthening of the Japanese currency during morning trading hours. Layering a U.S. bid on top of that would compound the squeeze on short-yen positioning.

Was the leak an accident?

Corpay Chief Market Strategist Karl Schamotta called the note “the funniest thing I've ever seen in [financial] markets,” and some analysts speculated the notepad was left in view intentionally as a form of verbal intervention.

A U.S. Treasury spokesperson did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on the contents of the notepad, or whether the Treasury had intervened to help prop up the yen's value against the dollar on Friday.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch FXY, the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust, for direct exposure to further yen strength if intervention is confirmed.

Watch UUP for the mirror image on the dollar side, and EWJ for how Japanese equities digest a stronger currency, which tends to pressure exporter margins.

Watch TM and SONY as ADRs of major Japanese exporters that historically move inverse to the yen. A sustained move lower in USD/JPY is typically a headwind for these names.

For more market-moving headlines, keep an eye on the flow.

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