Moderna Soars on Melanoma Vaccine Win — Even Trial Patients Bought MRNA

An 87-year-old Arizona man named Greg Byrne, one of the participants in Moderna and Merck’s late-stage melanoma vaccine trial, reportedly bought shares of MRNA after the data dropped. He is not alone. The stock has been one of the most-traded biotech names on the tape since the readout.

The trial that moved the stock

An experimental personalized cancer vaccine from Merck and Moderna showed positive initial results in its first-ever late-stage trial, the companies announced Wednesday, bringing them one step closer to filing for approval of the treatment option.

The mRNA-based shot in combination with Merck’s immunotherapy Keytruda met key goals in the Phase 3 trial in more than 1,100 patients with higher-risk or advanced melanoma whose detectable cancer had been completely removed, and the combination regimen significantly extended the time patients lived without their melanoma returning compared with Keytruda alone. The treatment also reduced the risk of the cancer spreading to distant parts of the body.

Why the stock ripped

Shares of Moderna surged $91.52, or 145%, to $154.48 in morning trading after touching an intraday high of $163. Merck’s shares rose $14.35, or 10.6%, to $149.52.

Analysts said the company’s valuation already reflected expectations that the personalized cancer vaccine could eventually work across multiple types of cancers — not just melanoma — before Wednesday’s stock move. Merck and Moderna are studying the vaccine in several trials across other tumors, such as non-small cell lung cancer, bladder cancer and renal cell carcinoma.

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The science behind the trade

The cancer treatment combines Keytruda with a made-to-order mRNA vaccine that is based on an analysis of mutations found in the patients’ own tumors. Tumor sequencing informs a bespoke mRNA encoding up to 34 neoantigens, aiming to amplify tumor-specific T-cell immunity when combined with PD-1 blockade.

Moderna said the company and partner Merck aim to file for approval from regulators within months, though they declined to provide a more specific timeline. Moderna expects that thousands of melanoma patients could benefit within the first few years of approval.

The bigger pipeline story

Beyond melanoma, personalized cancer vaccines are in late-stage development for a host of tumor types. Merck and Moderna have several large trials under way in non-small cell lung cancers that have been surgically removed. They are also studying the combination in mid-stage trials in patients with bladder and kidney cancers as well as in early-stage trials in pancreatic and stomach cancers, with numerous trial results expected in the next year or two.

That is the real setup for traders — every additional readout in lung, bladder, or kidney becomes its own catalyst window. For more, see other news.

Options market and stocks to watch

MRNA: Watch for elevated implied volatility and heavy call flow as traders position for follow-on readouts across lung, bladder, and kidney cancer trials.

MRK: Watch for how the Street models Keytruda’s life-cycle extension through the combo, especially with the LOE cliff approaching later this decade.

PFE and BNTX: Watch mRNA peers for sympathy moves, as validation of mRNA as an oncology platform re-rates the whole group.

BMY: Watch competing checkpoint franchises like Opdivo for competitive read-through if personalized neoantigen therapy becomes standard of care in adjuvant melanoma.

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