Trump: US Will Strike Iran Deal Right After Midterm Elections

President Donald Trump told the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday that he expects the US to reach a deal with Iran shortly after the November midterm elections, framing Tehran as waiting on the political outcome before moving.

What Trump actually said

“I believe we’ll make a deal right after the election because it doesn’t make sense for them not to,” Trump said. “They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm elections.”

Trump added that what Iran doesn’t realize is that he is not running, noting he already did that and won in a landslide.

The bigger UNGA message

Trump said he has a big decision to make on whether a deal is made with Iran that lets them rebuild, or whether to annihilate the Islamic Republic quickly. The tone was combative, not conciliatory.

Trump urged countries to join the US in enforcing the complete economic isolation of Iran until it stops attacks on commercial shipping, relinquishes nuclear ambitions, and ceases support of terror.

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Talks are already happening

After his speech, Trump confirmed representatives of the two countries met in New York, the first round since late June per the Financial Times. The US delegation included special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while Iran was represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, with third-party mediators involved. Witkoff later said the sides had held lengthy discussions.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had conveyed its latest proposal to Washington through mediators last week and could reopen the Strait of Hormuz to Gulf shipping within seven days if its demands were met.

Why the market cares

Gas prices are averaging $4.47 per gallon, roughly a 50% increase since the war with Iran began, while diesel hit a record $6 per gallon earlier this month before surging to $6.52 as of Tuesday, according to AAA.

Trump faces growing domestic discontent over the unpopular Iran war, rising energy costs, and stubbornly elevated inflation. Any de-escalation path would ripple straight through crude, defense, and shipping tape.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch for reactions in energy and defense complexes if headlines out of the mediated talks shift:

• USO: Watch for crude sensitivity to any Strait of Hormuz reopening chatter or renewed escalation.
• XOM: Watch for how integrated majors trade against shifts in the Iran risk premium.
• CVX: Watch for flow around headlines that move Brent and refined products.
• LMT: Watch defense primes if the “annihilate” rhetoric outweighs the deal talk.
• RTX: Watch for missile and defense-system demand narratives on either outcome.

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