Trump says Iran ‘really wants’ a deal as strikes continue
Trump says Iran ‘really wants’ a deal with the US, even as fresh strikes hit Iranian sites and Iran targets US forces in Kuwait. Here is what traders should watch.
President Donald Trump said Monday that Iran really wanted to make a deal with the U.S. and that it would be a good one for Washington and its allies. The comment landed in the middle of an active shooting cycle, not a calm diplomatic window.
Markets have been trading the Iran headlines for months. The setup now: a fragile ceasefire framework, fresh strikes, and a president publicly pressing for a deal.
What Trump actually said
Trump posted on Truth Social after midnight that “Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us,” and told markets and critics to “Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end.”
He also vented at his own side, saying it was tougher for him to negotiate with Iran with all the political commentary surrounding the conflict.
Why the timing matters
The post came only hours after the U.S. military said it struck Iranian military sites at the weekend and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had targeted a U.S. base in response, the latest in a series of exchanges amid negotiations to end the three-month-old war.
U.S. Central Command on Monday said Iran had fired two ballistic missiles overnight targeting American forces stationed in Kuwait. These attacks followed what the U.S. described as self-defense strikes on Iranian radar and command and control sites for drones in Goruk and Qeshm Island over the weekend.
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The Strait of Hormuz is the real trade
The reason every desk is watching this: the airstrikes are landing near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that typically handles around 20% of the world’s global oil traffic.
Iran’s foreign minister, meanwhile, warned that the ceasefire between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and its violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts. Translation: the deal can break in more than one place.
How close is a deal, really?
According to reporting cited by CNBC, Trump had requested several amendments to the latest terms his envoys had reached with Iranian officials, notably around Iran’s nuclear material.
Not everyone is buying the optimism. Bruegel’s Guntram Wolff said “we have been promised a good deal for a long time now and it’s more than 90 days gone.” He added that the fundamentals have not changed: Iran continues to have significant capabilities to inflict damage, it can continue to control the Strait of Hormuz, and it still has nuclear-enriched materials.
Options market and stocks to watch
Watch for crude-linked names to keep moving on every Hormuz headline. XOM and CVX typically lead the tape when Middle East risk premium gets repriced.
Defense primes are the other side of the trade. Watch LMT and RTX for flow as missile and air-defense activity stays in the headlines.
Energy ETF USO is the cleanest oil-price proxy for traders who want to express a view on whether a deal actually lands or breaks. For other developing stories, see other news.
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