Trump Threatens to "Take Over" Strait of Hormuz if Iran Deal Fails

President Trump escalated his rhetoric on Iran, telling Fox News that the US could take over the Strait of Hormuz if a deal isn’t reached and threatening to blow the sh*t out of them if Tehran balks. The comments hit as US-Iran negotiations were already underway in Switzerland, immediately raising the temperature on oil, shipping, and defense names.

What Trump actually said

Speaking to Fox News, Trump said the US could become the “Guardian Angel” of the Strait of Hormuz and take 20% of the oil, and threatened to take over the strait if Iran fails to make a deal, adding, “We may take over the Strait, if we have to, I’ll blow the sh*t out of them.”

“If they don’t make a deal, we’ll collect tolls,” the President added. The threat directly contradicts the toll-free framework the White House has been pushing in the broader interim agreement.

Why the Strait matters for markets

The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important chokepoint in global energy. Iran has effectively controlled the Strait since shortly after the war began on Feb. 28, virtually shutting down the vital passage for around 20% of the world’s oil.

Before the US and Israel waged war against Iran at the end of February, 140 ships passed through the Strait each day, and Iran’s response included firing drones and missiles at ships and laying mines along the shipping lanes. Any re-escalation puts tanker rates, insurance premiums, and crude prices right back in play.

The deal that is, and isn’t, holding

Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have signed a memorandum of understanding laying out terms for ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump warning he could resume attacks if Tehran failed to honor its commitments.

The MOU stipulates that the Strait will reopen, with Iran agreeing to allow safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days, followed by negotiations with Oman to define the future administration of the route. Trump’s latest comments suggest he’s already prepping the market for a Plan B if those talks slip.

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Iran is already pushing back

The threats invited sharp reaction from Iran, with the Iranian delegation in Switzerland leaving the venue in protest and refusing a planned handshake and joint photo session before talks began.

A spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baqaei, says vessels transiting the Strait will not pay tolls but instead pay “service fees” for navigation-related facilities, environmental protection and maritime support services. Translation: the toll fight isn’t over, it’s just been rebranded.

Options market and stocks to watch

Energy and defense are the obvious vectors if rhetoric turns into action.

• XOM and CVX: watch for renewed bid on any Strait headline risk, given direct crude exposure.
• USO: watch for sharp moves on WTI as traders price in re-escalation odds.
• LMT and RTX: watch defense flow if “take over” language hardens into policy.
• FRO: watch tanker names, as Strait disruption historically lifts day rates.

Keep an eye on other news out of Switzerland for the next signal on whether this is negotiating leverage or a real pivot.

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