US Homebuyer Demand Hits Record Low as Sellers Outnumber Buyers 51%

The US housing market just flipped further in favor of buyers, and the imbalance is now as wide as it has ever been on record. There were an estimated 966,752 buyers in the market in July, down 2.5 percent from June, compared with about 1.46 million sellers, according to Redfin. Nationwide, there were 51.3 percent more sellers than buyers in July, up from 47.9 percent in June and just below the record 51.8 percent gap reached in December 2025.

The problem is not supply. It is demand walking off the field.

Demand is collapsing, not supply surging

The estimated number of buyers declined 2.5% from June, while the number of sellers slipped 0.3% to 1,462,921, its lowest level in a year. That left approximately 496,000 more sellers than buyers nationwide.

The imbalance reflects deteriorating demand rather than a surge in available homes. Mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in a year during July, adding to affordability pressures already compounded by economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

“Buyers are dropping out faster than sellers, giving the buyers who remain more options and more negotiating power,” Redfin senior economist Asad Khan stated.

Rates are the choke point

The average 30-year fixed rate climbed to its highest level in a year, peaking at 6.69% in late July and early August before easing slightly to 6.67% by mid-August. The increase tracked the renewed US-Iran conflict, which pushed oil prices higher and revived inflation fears.

The Federal Reserve’s move to hold rates steady at its July meeting, its third pause in a row after a run of cuts, added further pressure. For traders, that ties the housing story directly to the next Fed decision and the CPI print.

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Where the surplus is worst

Buyer’s-market conditions now prevail in 39 of the 49 major US metros Redfin tracked, nearly 80% of the total. Miami leads with 154% more sellers than buyers, followed by Nashville, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin.

Most buyer’s markets got even more buyer-friendly in July, with 34 of 39 metros seeing bigger seller surpluses, led by Miami, Seattle and Fort Worth.

Only six metropolitan areas remained seller’s markets, where buyers outnumber sellers by more than 10%. Nassau County, New York, posted the largest seller advantage, with 36% fewer sellers than buyers. Newark, New Jersey, followed at 21% fewer sellers, with Providence, Rhode Island, at 17%; Milwaukee at 15%; and New Brunswick, New Jersey, and Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, each at 13%.

Options market and stocks to watch

Homebuilders concentrated in the Sun Belt are directly in the path of this seller surplus. Watch DHI and LEN for incentive commentary and margin compression, given how much of their book sits in Texas and Florida metros leading the seller-surplus tables.

Also watch Z and RDFN, whose transaction volumes track directly with active buyer counts, and HD, which is sensitive to housing turnover and existing-home sales activity.

Rate-sensitive names like RKT are worth monitoring around the next Fed meeting and CPI, since any move back toward 6% on the 30-year could re-engage sidelined buyers. Keep an eye on other news for follow-through data.

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