Macro - Unusual Whales (Page 2)

Sign in Subscribe

Macro

A collection of 527 posts

U.S. Economy Hits 78 Straight Months Without a Recession

The U.S. economy just keeps expanding. The economy has now gone 78 straight months without a recession, the sixth-longest expansion since 1854, per NBER data. That's well above the long-term average of about 49 months, and the median of about 38 months. The record still

Trump Calls Iran War Costs "a Small Price to Pay," Says Iran Could "Take Out" LA and San Diego

President Donald Trump told supporters in Nebraska that the economic fallout from the war with Iran is "just artificial" and "a small price to pay," adding that Iran could "take out" a major American city like Los Angeles or San Diego. "And again,

Trump Says "Nearly $100" Checks Headed to 20 Million Seniors

Trump Says "Nearly $100" Checks Headed to 20 Million Seniors

On Friday, Trump announced the payments in a Truth Social post, saying the money will come from the Medicare Improvement Fund. His post: "I am pleased to announce that my Administration will, immediately, begin sending 'Checks' of nearly $100 to over 20 MILLION wonderful Seniors to help

Texas Economy Hits $2.9 Trillion, Bigger Than Canada and Italy

Texas Economy Hits $2.9 Trillion, Bigger Than Canada and Italy

Texas produced roughly $2.9 trillion of economic output in 2025. That is per preliminary U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates, and Governor Abbott's April 17, 2026 press release called it a record high. In the Texas Comptroller's comparison with national economies, that places Texas

Argentina to Sell Citizenship: $350K Donation or $800K in Bonds

Argentina to Sell Citizenship: $350K Donation or $800K in Bonds

Economy Minister Luis Caputo unveiled the so-called "golden passport" scheme at an investor event in Paris, saying applications are expected to open before the end of the year. Argentina becomes the first G-20 nation and the first South American nation to sell citizenship directly. Two routes:

Pending Home Sales Hit 71.2 in August as Buyers Stay Sidelined

Pending Home Sales Hit 71.2 in August as Buyers Stay Sidelined

"Nationally, contract signings today are running roughly 30% below where they were in the years leading up to the pandemic." That is NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun on the August pending home sales data, released September 17. The national Pending Home Sales Index rose 0.3% month over

Trump Announces $90 Checks for 20 Million Seniors to Cover Medicare Premiums

Trump Announces $90 Checks for 20 Million Seniors to Cover Medicare Premiums

President Trump announced Friday that over 20 million "wonderful seniors" will receive $90 checks this month to help cover Medicare premiums. The one-time payments go to Medicare Part B enrollees, delivered in early October via direct deposit for those with bank details on file, or as paper

Trump: $5,000 Checks If GOP Wins, "Depression" If Democrats Do

Trump: $5,000 Checks If GOP Wins, "Depression" If Democrats Do

"If the Democrats win, you will have an economic depression, much like 1929," Trump said. "If the Republicans win, you will each have $5,000 in your pocket and economic success for our country like we have never ever seen before." The remarks came in a

Japan Just Raised Permanent Residency Fees 20-Fold to 200,000 Yen

Japan just made it a lot more expensive to stay. The Hike Japan raised the fee for permanent residency applications for foreigners to 200,000 yen (about $1,270), a 20-fold increase from the previous 10,000 yen. The new fees took effect October 1. The rush to beat

Treasury to Auto-Enroll 60M Kids in Trump Accounts Starting Oct. 1

Treasury will auto-enroll more than 60 million children in Trump Accounts as early as Oct. 1, potentially pushing total enrollment to 70 million. Robinhood and BNY Mellon administer the program.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reports more than $250 million in income last year

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reports more than $250 million in income last year

Running the Commerce Department pays $250,600 a year. Howard Lutnick's Wall Street exit paid a bit more. The Commerce Secretary reported more than $250 million in income last year, according to his annual financial disclosure obtained by CNBC and the Wall Street Journal — making him one of

Middle East crude exports have recovered to 98% of prewar levels, per JPMorgan

Middle East crude exports have recovered to 98% of prewar levels, per JPMorgan

Eight months into the US-Israel-Iran war, the oil market's worst fears are fading. Middle East crude exports have recovered to 98% of prewar levels, according to a September 29 JPMorgan note from Natasha Kaneva. A 10-day average of 17.5 million barrels a day is

Globe and Mail: Interest rates could keep rising for decades

The Globe and Mail argues higher interest rates could be the norm for decades. U.S. 10-year yields recently broke 5.2% and 30-year mortgages sit above 7%.

Trump Approval Hits 37% in WSJ Poll, Lowest Pre-Midterm Since 1990

Trump’s approval rating dropped to 37% in a new WSJ poll, the lowest for any president heading into a midterm election in the paper’s surveys dating back to 1990.

WSJ: Supply Chain Costs Surging, Businesses Passing Pain to Consumers

The WSJ says supply chain, tariff, and freight costs keep climbing and businesses can no longer absorb them. Retailers are passing the pain to U.S. consumers.

Trump Rule Cuts Federal Student Loans for Low-Earning Degrees

The Trump administration finalized a rule cutting federal student loans for degree programs whose graduates don’t out-earn high school or bachelor’s holders. Social work, art, music, and for-profit programs are most exposed.

Trump open to Iran sanctions relief, frozen fund release for nuclear progress

Trump is open to Iran sanctions relief and releasing frozen funds if Tehran shows concrete nuclear progress, per CNN. Talks continue through mediators, with crude and defense names in focus.

Thanksgiving and Christmas Airfare Hits 10-Year High: Report

Airfare for Thanksgiving and Christmas is hitting a 10-year high, per Hopper, with domestic round trips up 31% and 23% respectively as jet fuel prices soar and Spirit Airlines’ shutdown removes budget competition.

Inflation Has Outpaced Wage Growth Again, Per WaPo

The Washington Post reports inflation has outpaced wage growth for most of the past six months, with August wage gains at the slowest pace since the pandemic. The trade-down consumer trade is back in focus.

US Diesel Hits Record $6.529 in 11th Straight Weekly Rise

US on-highway diesel hit a record $6.529 per gallon, the 11th straight weekly increase, up 74% year-over-year. Refiner margins are at records while freight and CPI take the hit.

Over a Third of Americans Can't Name All 3 Branches of Government

A 2026 Annenberg civics survey found 35% of U.S. adults can't name all three branches of government, and only 9% can name all five First Amendment rights.

Transportation Costs Keep Climbing, Diesel Up 77% YoY: WSJ

The WSJ says U.S. transport costs keep rising, with trucking at pandemic-era highs and diesel up 77% year-over-year. It is a re-inflation risk the Fed cannot easily dismiss.

Obama: Global Living Standards Would Improve if Women Ran Every Government for Two Years

Obama: Global Living Standards Would Improve if Women Ran Every Government for Two Years

Barack Obama said global living standards and outcomes would improve if women ran every government for two years, reviving a 2019 argument during a Salem State University discussion.

Trump's Iran War Is Inadvertently Cutting Global Fossil Fuel Use: WaPo

Trump's Iran War Is Inadvertently Cutting Global Fossil Fuel Use: WaPo

Trump's seven-month war with Iran has disrupted oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and the IEA now projects global oil demand falls 2.5% in 2026, per a Washington Post analysis.

Canada's U.S. car purchases hit new low as tariffs backfire

Canada's U.S. car purchases hit new low as tariffs backfire

U.S.-built vehicles fell to 28.4% of Canadian new-car sales in H1 2026 from 35.4% a year earlier, per JD Power, as tariffs hand share to Japanese, Korean, and European automakers.