Macro Middle East crude exports have recovered to 98% of prewar levels, per JPMorgan Eight months into the US-Israel-Iran war, the oil market's worst fears are fading. Middle East crude exports have recovered to 98% of prewar levels, according to a September 29 JPMorgan note from Natasha Kaneva. A 10-day average of 17.5 million barrels a day is
Macro Globe and Mail: Interest rates could keep rising for decades The Globe and Mail argues higher interest rates could be the norm for decades. U.S. 10-year yields recently broke 5.2% and 30-year mortgages sit above 7%.
Politics Trump Approval Hits 37% in WSJ Poll, Lowest Pre-Midterm Since 1990 Trump’s approval rating dropped to 37% in a new WSJ poll, the lowest for any president heading into a midterm election in the paper’s surveys dating back to 1990.
Markets WSJ: Supply Chain Costs Surging, Businesses Passing Pain to Consumers The WSJ says supply chain, tariff, and freight costs keep climbing and businesses can no longer absorb them. Retailers are passing the pain to U.S. consumers.
Politics Trump Rule Cuts Federal Student Loans for Low-Earning Degrees The Trump administration finalized a rule cutting federal student loans for degree programs whose graduates don’t out-earn high school or bachelor’s holders. Social work, art, music, and for-profit programs are most exposed.
Geopolitics Trump open to Iran sanctions relief, frozen fund release for nuclear progress Trump is open to Iran sanctions relief and releasing frozen funds if Tehran shows concrete nuclear progress, per CNN. Talks continue through mediators, with crude and defense names in focus.
Markets Thanksgiving and Christmas Airfare Hits 10-Year High: Report Airfare for Thanksgiving and Christmas is hitting a 10-year high, per Hopper, with domestic round trips up 31% and 23% respectively as jet fuel prices soar and Spirit Airlines’ shutdown removes budget competition.
Macro Inflation Has Outpaced Wage Growth Again, Per WaPo The Washington Post reports inflation has outpaced wage growth for most of the past six months, with August wage gains at the slowest pace since the pandemic. The trade-down consumer trade is back in focus.
energy US Diesel Hits Record $6.529 in 11th Straight Weekly Rise US on-highway diesel hit a record $6.529 per gallon, the 11th straight weekly increase, up 74% year-over-year. Refiner margins are at records while freight and CPI take the hit.
Politics Over a Third of Americans Can't Name All 3 Branches of Government A 2026 Annenberg civics survey found 35% of U.S. adults can't name all three branches of government, and only 9% can name all five First Amendment rights.
Macro Transportation Costs Keep Climbing, Diesel Up 77% YoY: WSJ The WSJ says U.S. transport costs keep rising, with trucking at pandemic-era highs and diesel up 77% year-over-year. It is a re-inflation risk the Fed cannot easily dismiss.
Politics Obama: Global Living Standards Would Improve if Women Ran Every Government for Two Years Barack Obama said global living standards and outcomes would improve if women ran every government for two years, reviving a 2019 argument during a Salem State University discussion.
energy Trump's Iran War Is Inadvertently Cutting Global Fossil Fuel Use: WaPo Trump's seven-month war with Iran has disrupted oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and the IEA now projects global oil demand falls 2.5% in 2026, per a Washington Post analysis.
Markets Canada's U.S. car purchases hit new low as tariffs backfire U.S.-built vehicles fell to 28.4% of Canadian new-car sales in H1 2026 from 35.4% a year earlier, per JD Power, as tariffs hand share to Japanese, Korean, and European automakers.
Macro CBS: The Bond Market Is Freaking Out as Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs Per CBS, the bond market is flashing red as the 30-year Treasury yield hits its highest level since 2004 and the 10-year nears 5.15%, driven by inflation and Fed hike bets.
Macro Trump touts ‘best poverty numbers ever’ as SNAP cuts loom in 2026 Trump claimed the U.S. has the ‘best poverty numbers ever.’ Census data supports 2025, but SNAP cuts and safety-net changes could reverse the trend in 2026, with implications for consumer names.
Geopolitics Trump: Iran War Will End ‘Very Soon,’ Oil Prices to Follow Trump said the Iran war will end ‘very soon,’ likely right after the midterms, and predicted oil prices would fall sharply. Energy, defense, and broad-index traders should watch the war-premium unwind.
Politics White House Rescinds $810M via Pocket Rescission, Setting Up Legal Fight The White House is clawing back $810M in congressionally appropriated funds via a pocket rescission, hitting HHS, Education, HUD and DOJ programs. Sen. Collins calls the move unlawful.
energy Louisiana Declares Emergency as Diesel Hits Record $6.03/Gallon Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry declared a state of emergency as diesel hit a record $6.03/gallon, letting farmers and loggers use dyed off-road fuel through October 22 amid a national distillate squeeze.
Macro 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Jumps to 7.45%, Highest Since April 2024 The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 19 basis points to 7.45%, the highest since April 2024, as bond yields surged on Fed comments, higher oil, and stronger economic data.
Geopolitics Netanyahu Was Secretly Warned by UAE President Before Oct. 7 Attack UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed reportedly gave Netanyahu a personal warning about a major Hamas attack days before Oct. 7, 2023. Netanyahu denies it, but the NYT and former PM Naftali Bennett back the account.
Politics Supreme Court Clears Trump SAVE Voter ID Tool Ahead of Midterms The Supreme Court cleared the Trump administration’s revamped SAVE voter ID tool in a 6-3 ruling, letting states screen rolls for ineligible voters ahead of the midterms.
Politics Obama: ‘Old Men Clinging to Power’ a Global Challenge Barack Obama says ‘old men clinging to power’ are behind most of the world’s problems, calling for younger leaders as the 2026 midterms approach.
Politics Obama: Federal Government Is Less Corrupt Than Ever Before Former President Obama says the federal government is less corrupt than at virtually any point in U.S. history, even as 89% of Americans now say corruption is widespread.
Macro Over 10 Million Student Loan Borrowers Are Behind on Payments More than 10 million federal student loan borrowers are behind on payments, with wage garnishment, Social Security offsets, and credit score hits now in play. Consumer credit stress is building.
