Macro CBS: The Bond Market Is Freaking Out as Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs Per CBS, the bond market is flashing red as the 30-year Treasury yield hits its highest level since 2004 and the 10-year nears 5.15%, driven by inflation and Fed hike bets.
Macro Trump touts ‘best poverty numbers ever’ as SNAP cuts loom in 2026 Trump claimed the U.S. has the ‘best poverty numbers ever.’ Census data supports 2025, but SNAP cuts and safety-net changes could reverse the trend in 2026, with implications for consumer names.
Geopolitics Trump: Iran War Will End ‘Very Soon,’ Oil Prices to Follow Trump said the Iran war will end ‘very soon,’ likely right after the midterms, and predicted oil prices would fall sharply. Energy, defense, and broad-index traders should watch the war-premium unwind.
Politics White House Rescinds $810M via Pocket Rescission, Setting Up Legal Fight The White House is clawing back $810M in congressionally appropriated funds via a pocket rescission, hitting HHS, Education, HUD and DOJ programs. Sen. Collins calls the move unlawful.
energy Louisiana Declares Emergency as Diesel Hits Record $6.03/Gallon Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry declared a state of emergency as diesel hit a record $6.03/gallon, letting farmers and loggers use dyed off-road fuel through October 22 amid a national distillate squeeze.
Macro 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Jumps to 7.45%, Highest Since April 2024 The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 19 basis points to 7.45%, the highest since April 2024, as bond yields surged on Fed comments, higher oil, and stronger economic data.
Geopolitics Netanyahu Was Secretly Warned by UAE President Before Oct. 7 Attack UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed reportedly gave Netanyahu a personal warning about a major Hamas attack days before Oct. 7, 2023. Netanyahu denies it, but the NYT and former PM Naftali Bennett back the account.
Politics Supreme Court Clears Trump SAVE Voter ID Tool Ahead of Midterms The Supreme Court cleared the Trump administration’s revamped SAVE voter ID tool in a 6-3 ruling, letting states screen rolls for ineligible voters ahead of the midterms.
Politics Obama: ‘Old Men Clinging to Power’ a Global Challenge Barack Obama says ‘old men clinging to power’ are behind most of the world’s problems, calling for younger leaders as the 2026 midterms approach.
Politics Obama: Federal Government Is Less Corrupt Than Ever Before Former President Obama says the federal government is less corrupt than at virtually any point in U.S. history, even as 89% of Americans now say corruption is widespread.
Macro Over 10 Million Student Loan Borrowers Are Behind on Payments More than 10 million federal student loan borrowers are behind on payments, with wage garnishment, Social Security offsets, and credit score hits now in play. Consumer credit stress is building.
Macro 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Approaches 7.5% MortgageNewsDaily says the average top-tier 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now just under 7.5%, the highest since April 2024, as the 10-year Treasury yield tops 5%.
Politics Trump Allies Push for ‘Martial Law’ in November Midterms: Atlantic The Atlantic reports some Trump allies are urging him to declare martial law or a national security emergency around the November 3 midterms. Here is what traders should watch.
Geopolitics Xi Doubles Down: China Invites 100,000 Young Americans to Study Abroad Xi Jinping announced China will invite 100,000 young Americans for exchanges and study over five years, doubling a 2023 pledge and signaling a softer tone during his White House state visit with Trump.
Geopolitics US, Iran Weigh Phased Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz, Lift Blockade US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting Washington's economic blockade, per Reuters.
Geopolitics Netanyahu Targets Mamdani in Fiery UN Speech, Denies Gaza Genocide Netanyahu used his UN General Assembly address to directly attack NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani over genocide accusations, insisting Israel prevented genocide rather than committed it. Mamdani fired back, calling the speech baseless lies.
Macro Canada's Fertility Rate Stays at Record Low 1.26 in 2025 Statistics Canada says the country's fertility rate held at a record-low 1.26 children per woman in 2025, with mothers now averaging 31.9 years at childbirth.
Real Estate Houston Has 131% More Home Sellers Than Buyers, Redfin Says Houston now has 131% more home sellers than buyers per Redfin, making it the third-strongest US buyer's market as the national seller-buyer gap hits a record 57.9%.
Geopolitics Carney Prepared for ‘Tail Risk’ of a U.S.-Led Invasion of Canada PM Mark Carney told the NYT he studied the ‘extreme tail risk’ of a U.S.-led military invasion of Canada, calling the planning basic risk management as the trade war with Trump grinds on.
Real Estate Homebuilders Say ICE Crackdowns Are Squeezing Labor Supply Homebuilders told John Burns Research that ICE crackdowns are causing labor shortages and stretching cycle times, adding pressure on top of higher rates and tariff-driven input costs.
Real Estate Miami Has 138% More Home Sellers Than Buyers, Redfin Says Miami has 138% more home sellers than buyers per Redfin, second only to Nashville, as the U.S. hits its strongest buyer's market on record.
Macro Treasury to Buy Up to $6B in Long-Dated Debt Thursday The US Treasury will purchase up to $6 billion in longer-dated government debt Thursday, the first operation under Bessent's expanded buyback program aimed at capping rising long-end yields.
Politics Merkley, Wyden Pitch $50K Federal Match for First-Time Homebuyers Sen. Jeff Merkley and cosponsor Sen. Ron Wyden are pitching the Homeownership Promise Act, a 5:1 federal savings match up to $50,000 for first-time homebuyers. Homebuilders and mortgage lenders are the read-through.
Macro US and China Extend Trade Truce to January 10, Bessent Says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and China have agreed to extend their trade truce to January 10, pushing back the November tariff deadline as Xi arrives in Washington.
Markets US home prices posted fastest annual gain in a year in August: Redfin Redfin says US home prices rose 3.7% year over year in August, the fastest annual pace in a year, even as sellers outnumbered buyers by 58% in the strongest buyer’s market on record.
