Macro 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Approaches 7.5% MortgageNewsDaily says the average top-tier 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now just under 7.5%, the highest since April 2024, as the 10-year Treasury yield tops 5%.
Politics Trump Allies Push for ‘Martial Law’ in November Midterms: Atlantic The Atlantic reports some Trump allies are urging him to declare martial law or a national security emergency around the November 3 midterms. Here is what traders should watch.
Geopolitics Xi Doubles Down: China Invites 100,000 Young Americans to Study Abroad Xi Jinping announced China will invite 100,000 young Americans for exchanges and study over five years, doubling a 2023 pledge and signaling a softer tone during his White House state visit with Trump.
Geopolitics US, Iran Weigh Phased Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz, Lift Blockade US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting Washington's economic blockade, per Reuters.
Geopolitics Netanyahu Targets Mamdani in Fiery UN Speech, Denies Gaza Genocide Netanyahu used his UN General Assembly address to directly attack NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani over genocide accusations, insisting Israel prevented genocide rather than committed it. Mamdani fired back, calling the speech baseless lies.
Macro Canada's Fertility Rate Stays at Record Low 1.26 in 2025 Statistics Canada says the country's fertility rate held at a record-low 1.26 children per woman in 2025, with mothers now averaging 31.9 years at childbirth.
Real Estate Houston Has 131% More Home Sellers Than Buyers, Redfin Says Houston now has 131% more home sellers than buyers per Redfin, making it the third-strongest US buyer's market as the national seller-buyer gap hits a record 57.9%.
Geopolitics Carney Prepared for ‘Tail Risk’ of a U.S.-Led Invasion of Canada PM Mark Carney told the NYT he studied the ‘extreme tail risk’ of a U.S.-led military invasion of Canada, calling the planning basic risk management as the trade war with Trump grinds on.
Real Estate Homebuilders Say ICE Crackdowns Are Squeezing Labor Supply Homebuilders told John Burns Research that ICE crackdowns are causing labor shortages and stretching cycle times, adding pressure on top of higher rates and tariff-driven input costs.
Real Estate Miami Has 138% More Home Sellers Than Buyers, Redfin Says Miami has 138% more home sellers than buyers per Redfin, second only to Nashville, as the U.S. hits its strongest buyer's market on record.
Macro Treasury to Buy Up to $6B in Long-Dated Debt Thursday The US Treasury will purchase up to $6 billion in longer-dated government debt Thursday, the first operation under Bessent's expanded buyback program aimed at capping rising long-end yields.
Politics Merkley, Wyden Pitch $50K Federal Match for First-Time Homebuyers Sen. Jeff Merkley and cosponsor Sen. Ron Wyden are pitching the Homeownership Promise Act, a 5:1 federal savings match up to $50,000 for first-time homebuyers. Homebuilders and mortgage lenders are the read-through.
Macro US and China Extend Trade Truce to January 10, Bessent Says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and China have agreed to extend their trade truce to January 10, pushing back the November tariff deadline as Xi arrives in Washington.
Markets US home prices posted fastest annual gain in a year in August: Redfin Redfin says US home prices rose 3.7% year over year in August, the fastest annual pace in a year, even as sellers outnumbered buyers by 58% in the strongest buyer’s market on record.
Geopolitics Trump: US Will Strike Iran Deal Right After Midterm Elections Trump told the UN General Assembly he expects a US-Iran deal right after the November midterm elections, even as talks quietly resumed in New York and energy prices stay elevated.
Geopolitics Rubio: New Greenland Deal Lets US Build Unlimited Military Bases Rubio says the new US-Denmark-Greenland pact is permanent, lets Washington build unlimited military bases, adds a Golden Dome missile shield, and blocks Chinese investment in the Arctic.
energy JPMorgan Oil Team Abandons Iran War Forecast as Redlines Fall JPMorgan’s commodities team says it no longer has a baseline view for oil as the Iran war blows past its economic redlines, with Brent near $105 and diesel at record highs.
Macro Bessent Raises Treasury Buyback Size Again to Cap Long-End Yields Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has raised the bond buyback size again, extending an unusual push to cap long-end yields. Here is what traders should watch across TLT, TLH and rate-sensitive names.
energy US Diesel Hits Record $6.50 a Gallon as Fuel Crunch Deepens US diesel prices hit an all-time high above $6.50 per gallon, per AAA, up nearly $1 in four weeks as war with Iran and Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten global fuel supply.
energy Trump Calls Rising Gas Prices ‘Inexpensive Price to Pay’ for Iran War Trump called surging gas prices an ‘inexpensive price to pay’ for the Iran war as the national average hit $4.48. Analysts say they can’t model the endgame.
Geopolitics Bessent: All Iranian Airlines to Be Shut Down Worldwide on Sept. 23 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said all Iranian airlines will be shut down worldwide on Sept. 23 as US secondary sanctions target fuel, landing, and ticketing services for any foreign firm still serving Iran’s carriers.
Real Estate US Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers by Record 563,000: Redfin Redfin says US home sellers outnumbered buyers by a record 58% in August 2026, roughly 563,000 more listings than active buyers. Sun Belt metros lead the imbalance as builders keep adding supply into a stalled demand backdrop.
Macro Job Market Flips: Non-College Young Workers Beat Grads on Unemployment Per WSJ and a Burning Glass Institute analysis, unemployment for younger non-college workers is near two-decade lows, while college grads face one of their worst job markets, partly due to AI eating entry-level roles.
Tech WSJ: A computer-science degree is no longer a golden ticket The WSJ says a computer-science degree is no longer a golden ticket, as AI, tighter hiring, and a flood of new grads reshape the tech job market.
Commodities FT: Copper Facing Major Supply Shortfall Starting 2027 The FT reports a big shortfall in copper supply is expected from 2027, with Citi, Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan warning of a structural deficit. Miners like FCX, SCCO, BHP and RIO are in focus.
