Macro US Tariff Refunds Exceed Collections, Widening June Budget Deficit In June, the US government refunded $49.2 billion in tariffs, surpassing the $23.6 billion collected, contributing to a $120 billion budget deficit.
AI AI blamed for 87,714 US job cuts in 2026, per Challenger Challenger, Gray & Christmas says AI has been cited in 87,714 US job cuts through May 2026, already topping all of 2025. Tech leads the wave, with 123,653 sector cuts YTD.
Politics Trump: ‘No Limits’ to His Power After Iran War, per Axios Trump told Axios there are ‘no limits’ to his power after the Iran war, while admitting oil-shock fears drove him to accept an MOU instead of unconditional surrender. Here is the market angle.
Macro US Home Prices Rise for 36 Straight Months, Hit Record High US home prices have risen for 36 straight months, with June’s median existing-home price hitting a record $440,660 as sales stall and affordability worsens.
Macro Merz: US tariffs have badly damaged the German economy Chancellor Friedrich Merz says US tariffs have badly damaged Germany's economy, as Q2 GDP contracts 0.3% and exports slide under the new 15% tariff regime.
Geopolitics CENTCOM says US has struck Iran multiple times, blockade resumes CENTCOM says US forces have carried out multiple waves of precision strikes on Iranian military targets and resumed a naval blockade of Iranian ports, putting oil, defense, and tanker stocks in focus.
Markets 9.16 Million US Borrowers in Default on Federal Student Loans Approximately 9.16 million U.S. borrowers, nearly 20% of those with federal student debt, are in default following the end of the payment pause, impacting financial markets and loan servicers.
Politics House Passes Sunshine Protection Act to Make Daylight Saving Time Permanent The House passed the Sunshine Protection Act 308-117, sending legislation to make daylight saving time permanent to the Senate, where opposition from Sen. Tom Cotton could stall it.
Markets Cyclosporiasis outbreak hits California: doctor warns to skip fresh produce A San Diego infectious disease doctor is warning Americans to avoid fresh produce as a cyclosporiasis outbreak reaches California. Grocers, restaurants, and produce distributors could see headline risk.
Politics Darline Graham sworn in as US Senator to finish late brother Lindsey's term Darline Graham was sworn in Tuesday to finish her late brother Lindsey Graham's Senate term, becoming South Carolina's first female senator and reshaping key committee dynamics through January 2027.
Macro US Sent $49.1B in Tariff Refunds to Businesses in June The US Treasury paid out $49.1 billion in tariff refunds to businesses in June, more than double May’s payouts and well above the $23.6 billion in tariff revenue collected during the month.
Macro US CPI Cools to 3.5% in June, Below 3.8% Forecast June US CPI printed 3.5% YoY, below the 3.8% forecast and down from 4.2%. Falling energy costs led the drop while core inflation eased to 2.6%, reopening the rate-cut debate.
Real Estate 1 in 3 Adults Under 35 Lives with Parents, Impacting Housing Market A significant portion of adults under 35 are living with their parents, affecting housing demand and the real estate market.
Markets Stocks and the economy are out of sync, and AI is the reason Stocks are up nearly 10% in the first half of 2026 while GDP growth trends near 2%. Economists say AI is the reason the market and economy look out of sync, and a wobble in AI names could hit the real economy through the wealth effect.
Geopolitics Trump Notifies Congress of Resumed War With Iran, Oil Surges Trump formally notified Congress that US military action against Iran resumed on July 7, restarting the War Powers clock. A reinstated Strait of Hormuz blockade sent Brent up nearly 10% in a single session.
Politics Trump Administration Launches Campaign to ‘Dismantle’ the ICC The Trump administration is launching a whole-of-government campaign to dismantle the International Criminal Court, with Rubio pressuring allies to withdraw support and threatening cuts to US assistance.
Politics Judge Voids Trump’s $1.8B IRS Settlement, Refers Lawyers for Discipline A federal judge voided Trump’s settlement with the IRS that granted sweeping tax protections and set up a nearly $1.8B fund, referring lawyers for discipline.
Markets Ohio Named CNBC’s Top State for Business in 2026 Ohio is CNBC’s No. 1 State for Business in 2026, its first top finish since the study began in 2007, edging North Carolina as infrastructure becomes the highest-weighted category.
Markets US Housing Hits Record Unaffordability, Per CBS Report Per CBS, US home affordability is at a historic low. Median existing home prices hit $440,660, with buyers needing $117K+ in income and over 75% of listings out of reach.
AI Musk: AI and Robots Will Bring Universal High Income, Work Optional Elon Musk says AI and robots will make work optional and deliver universal high income. Michael Burry replied ‘False. There will be revolution first.’ Here is the trade angle.
Macro US entry-level job market weakest in 37 years as new-entrant unemployment hits 13.3% The share of unemployed Americans who are new workforce entrants hit a 37-year high at 13.3% in 2025, with finance and info services bleeding jobs and AI closing the door on entry-level white-collar work.
Politics Pentagon Runs Low on Cash Despite Nearly $1T Budget The Pentagon is running out of cash despite a nearly $1T budget, asking Congress for $67B more as Iran war costs mount and munitions stockpiles run low.
Geopolitics Trump declares Iran ceasefire ‘OVER’ after strikes in Strait of Hormuz Trump says the US ceasefire with Iran is ‘OVER’ after fresh strikes tied to attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, though talks will continue. Oil is up on the week and tanker traffic has slowed.
Macro Fed Taps Xbox CEO Asha Sharma for Jobs Task Force Days After 3,200 Layoffs The Fed named Xbox CEO Asha Sharma to co-lead its Productivity and Jobs task force just three days after she announced 3,200 layoffs at Microsoft’s gaming division.
Politics Ken Griffin Says He'd Back Rubio Over Vance in 2028 GOP Primary Citadel's Ken Griffin told a Sun Valley audience he'd back Marco Rubio over JD Vance in a 2028 GOP primary, per Axios, highlighting a growing donor split inside the Republican Party.
