AI Vanguard: AI White-Collar Job Wipeout Fears Are Overblown Vanguard's chief economist says fears of an AI-fueled white-collar job wipeout are overblown, arguing highly exposed occupations are still seeing solid employment growth nearly four years after ChatGPT's launch.
Macro 12% of High-Income Americans Living Paycheck to Paycheck A significant portion of high-income Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior and economic pressures.
Geopolitics Trump says Iran talks ‘going very well’ as Hormuz deal nears Trump says U.S.-Iran talks are moving along nicely, with a potential 60-day Strait of Hormuz shipping framework possibly landing within days. Oil, defense, and shipping names are all in play.
Macro Bessent: K-Shaped Economy Is “Definitively” Over Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC the K-shaped economy is “definitively” over, pointing to wage gains at the bottom. Moody’s, the Atlanta Fed, and BofA data tell a more mixed story.
Energy Iran Considers Banning US and Israeli Vessels from Strait of Hormuz Iran's parliament is reviewing a bill to regulate transit and potentially ban U.S. and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil markets.
Macro Fed Chair Warsh Reportedly Ready to Back a September Rate Hike Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly prepared to back a rate hike at the September FOMC if inflation data comes in hot, breaking with Trump’s push for cuts.
Macro Visa: Gen X and Millennials Have Built More Wealth Than Boomers Did Visa says Gen X and millennials have built more per-capita wealth than boomers had at the same ages, with 401(k) access and stronger markets doing much of the work. Here is what it means for consumer, housing, and financial stocks.
Politics Judge Clears Path to Deport 350,000 Haitians After TPS Ends A federal judge lifted the block on ending Temporary Protected Status for roughly 350,000 Haitians, clearing the Trump administration to proceed with deportations after the Supreme Court’s June ruling.
Macro Bank of America Sees Three Fed Rate Hikes in 2026 Bank of America now expects the Fed to hike three times in 2026 — September, October, and December — reversing its prior on-hold call. CME FedWatch puts those odds at just 6.2%.
Markets Michael Burry Warns Market Near a Major Top, Eyes 1987-Style Fall Michael Burry says the market is near a major top and warns of a possible 1987-style fall, while rolling his Nvidia and QQQ puts deeper into 2027.
Macro Fed's Kashkari Advocates for Interest Rate Hike Amid Inflation Concerns Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari urges for an interest rate increase, citing entrenched inflation and supply shocks. Market implications discussed.
Macro 64% of Middle-Income Americans Living Paycheck to Paycheck A recent survey reveals that 64% of Americans earning between $50,000 and $99,999 are living paycheck to paycheck, highlighting financial strain in the middle-income bracket.
Markets 66% of Boomers Want to Enjoy Their Wealth While Alive: Visa Visa research shows 66% of boomers want to enjoy their wealth or have heirs enjoy it while they are alive, with roughly $8 trillion set to hit autos, housing, travel and retail.
Macro Wages Fall to 43% of U.S. Gross Domestic Income, Near Record Low Wages and salaries have dropped to about 43% of U.S. gross domestic income, near the lowest share since 1929, as corporate profits and investment income capture more of the pie.
Markets 63% of Americans Have Less Than $500 Left After Monthly Bills A recent survey reveals that 63% of Americans have less than $500 remaining each month after paying bills, highlighting potential impacts on consumer spending and market sectors.
Banks Wells Fargo: Paychecks Rising Faster Than Inflation for Customers Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf says paychecks are rising faster than inflation for its customer base, with card spend up double digits and delinquencies falling, even as broader CPI data tells a more complicated story.
Politics Army Recruiting Rebounds Nearly 38% From 2022 Low, Hits FY2026 Goal Early The US Army has already hit its FY2026 active-duty recruiting goal, with enlistments up nearly 38% from the 2022 low. Defense primes LMT, RTX, GD, and NOC in focus.
Macro Visa: 25% of millennial homeowners got down payment help from parents Visa research shows 1 in 4 millennial homeowners received parental down payment assistance, and 26% say they could not have bought their current home without it.
Real Estate Over 70% of Recent Home Buyers Were Banking on Mortgage Rates Dropping More than 70% of recent home buyers were counting on mortgage rates to drop, per MarketWatch. Rates remain stuck above 6%, leaving buyers squeezed and refinance hopes on hold.
Real Estate Redfin: U.S. home prices hit record $408,776 in June Redfin says the median U.S. home-sale price hit an all-time high of $408,776 in June, up 2.2% year over year, led by San Francisco and West Palm Beach. Existing-home sales rose to the highest since 2022.
Politics Trump Reportedly Indifferent to Midterm Losses, Eyes Executive Actions and Pardons Trump is reportedly indifferent to losing Congress in 2026, telling advisers he will govern through executive actions and pardons. Here is the trade angle.
Macro US-Japan Joint Yen Intervention Remains Ongoing, per Reuters The US and Japan have confirmed an ongoing joint yen-buying intervention, the first coordinated operation since 1998, with both sides signaling readiness for further action to defend the yen from 40-year lows.
Geopolitics Iran Denies Trump's Claim of Strait of Hormuz Reopening Deal Iran denied Trump's claim that a preliminary deal had been reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying the waterway stays closed while US hostile actions continue.
Geopolitics US Embassies in Middle East Warn Americans of Flight Risks as Iran Tensions Rise US embassies in roughly 10 Middle East countries told Americans to prepare for flight cancellations and airspace closures as tensions with Iran escalate and oil ticks higher.
Markets Labor Market Dynamics Shift: Job Losses May Not Raise Unemployment Recent trends indicate the U.S. economy can shed jobs without increasing unemployment, signaling a significant shift in labor market dynamics.
