Geopolitics Trump: Iran War Will End ‘Very Soon,’ Oil Prices to Follow Trump said the Iran war will end ‘very soon,’ likely right after the midterms, and predicted oil prices would fall sharply. Energy, defense, and broad-index traders should watch the war-premium unwind.
Geopolitics Trump asked Xi if China wanted to buy US weapons, envoy says US Ambassador David Perdue says Trump asked Xi Jinping if China wanted to buy American weapons, framing pending Taiwan arms sales as routine global business.
Geopolitics Netanyahu Was Secretly Warned by UAE President Before Oct. 7 Attack UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed reportedly gave Netanyahu a personal warning about a major Hamas attack days before Oct. 7, 2023. Netanyahu denies it, but the NYT and former PM Naftali Bennett back the account.
Geopolitics US Military Lays Groundwork for Potential Action Around Cuba: CBS CBS reports the US Army Reserve is reviewing whether it can supply Southern Command with police, medical and support units within 90-120 days as part of continued military planning aimed at Cuba.
Geopolitics Xi Doubles Down: China Invites 100,000 Young Americans to Study Abroad Xi Jinping announced China will invite 100,000 young Americans for exchanges and study over five years, doubling a 2023 pledge and signaling a softer tone during his White House state visit with Trump.
Geopolitics Xi Gifts US Two Pandas for Zoo Atlanta in Trump Summit Goodwill Move Xi Jinping announced during his White House summit with Trump that China will send two giant pandas, Ping Ping and Fu Shuang, to Zoo Atlanta as a goodwill gesture.
Tech Canada Confirms Plan to Diversify Away From Musk's Starlink Canadian PM Mark Carney told the New York Times that Canada will diversify away from Elon Musk's Starlink, citing sovereignty risks and prior service disruptions in Ukraine. Telesat Lightspeed and European rivals stand to benefit.
Geopolitics US, Iran Weigh Phased Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz, Lift Blockade US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting Washington's economic blockade, per Reuters.
Geopolitics Netanyahu Targets Mamdani in Fiery UN Speech, Denies Gaza Genocide Netanyahu used his UN General Assembly address to directly attack NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani over genocide accusations, insisting Israel prevented genocide rather than committed it. Mamdani fired back, calling the speech baseless lies.
Geopolitics Mystery men emerge from NYC sewers near Netanyahu hotel: NBC NYPD says three men were caught on camera climbing out of Manhattan sewers before dawn near the hotel where Netanyahu planned to stay. Officials call it likely scrap scavenging but are running extra sweeps during UNGA.
Politics Senate Blocks Iran War Powers Resolution in 49-50 Vote The Senate narrowly rejected a war powers resolution to end U.S. military action against Iran in a 49-50 vote, keeping the conflict, and its market impact on oil and defense names, in play.
Geopolitics Carney Prepared for ‘Tail Risk’ of a U.S.-Led Invasion of Canada PM Mark Carney told the NYT he studied the ‘extreme tail risk’ of a U.S.-led military invasion of Canada, calling the planning basic risk management as the trade war with Trump grinds on.
Geopolitics China Holds F-35 Stealth Parts Diverted to Hong Kong by UPS China has taken possession of F-35 stealth parts, including a cockpit canopy and weapons-bay door, that were diverted to Hong Kong via UPS from Australia. Watch LMT and UPS for fallout.
Macro US and China Extend Trade Truce to January 10, Bessent Says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and China have agreed to extend their trade truce to January 10, pushing back the November tariff deadline as Xi arrives in Washington.
Geopolitics Trump: US Will Strike Iran Deal Right After Midterm Elections Trump told the UN General Assembly he expects a US-Iran deal right after the November midterm elections, even as talks quietly resumed in New York and energy prices stay elevated.
Geopolitics Rubio: New Greenland Deal Lets US Build Unlimited Military Bases Rubio says the new US-Denmark-Greenland pact is permanent, lets Washington build unlimited military bases, adds a Golden Dome missile shield, and blocks Chinese investment in the Arctic.
energy JPMorgan Oil Team Abandons Iran War Forecast as Redlines Fall JPMorgan’s commodities team says it no longer has a baseline view for oil as the Iran war blows past its economic redlines, with Brent near $105 and diesel at record highs.
energy US Diesel Hits Record $6.50 a Gallon as Fuel Crunch Deepens US diesel prices hit an all-time high above $6.50 per gallon, per AAA, up nearly $1 in four weeks as war with Iran and Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten global fuel supply.
energy Trump Calls Rising Gas Prices ‘Inexpensive Price to Pay’ for Iran War Trump called surging gas prices an ‘inexpensive price to pay’ for the Iran war as the national average hit $4.48. Analysts say they can’t model the endgame.
Geopolitics Bessent: All Iranian Airlines to Be Shut Down Worldwide on Sept. 23 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said all Iranian airlines will be shut down worldwide on Sept. 23 as US secondary sanctions target fuel, landing, and ticketing services for any foreign firm still serving Iran’s carriers.
Geopolitics Pentagon Probe: AI Overreliance, Stale Intel Led to Iran School Strike A Pentagon probe found outdated intel and overreliance on Palantir's Maven AI system contributed to the Feb. 28 U.S. Tomahawk strike on a Minab elementary school that killed 123 children.
Geopolitics US Warns Americans in 9 Mideast Countries as Saudi-Houthi Fight May ‘Escalate Rapidly’ The US State Department urged Americans in nine Middle East countries to exercise heightened caution, warning that Houthi-Saudi fighting could escalate rapidly and disrupt travel, shipping, and energy flows.
Geopolitics Pentagon undercounting US troop deaths in Iran war, per WaPo The Washington Post reports the Pentagon has undercounted US service member deaths in the Iran war, with officials citing at least 22 fatalities versus the 18 in the public DCAS database.
Geopolitics Putin Preparing to Escalate Ukraine War, Target European Allies Western intelligence says Putin is preparing a stealth mobilisation and intensified hybrid attacks on Ukraine’s European allies, with France and Poland already sounding the alarm on sabotage and missile risk.
Geopolitics Trump Says US Reached Deal for ‘Permanent Control’ Over Greenland Security Trump says the US has reached a deal with Denmark and Greenland granting Washington permanent control over security, with plans for a large military presence on the island.
